Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 28

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Bos A. (Ned)


	Willem II		Vitesse

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.9	3.5	Watch
	1.88	3.95	3.45	Watch
	1.94	4.09	3.56
	1.9	4.17	3.36	Watch
	1.91	3.7	3.3
	1.9	3.84	3.48	Watch
	1.92	3.75	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.82)	3.91 ↑ (3.8)	3.44 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
49%

Draw
23.8%

Vitesse
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

23.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

23.7%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Vitesse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitesse than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	6.2%	12.5%

Willem II - Vitesse Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Willem II will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Willem II will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 15. Et Taibi A. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 8. Twigt C. 18. Zarrouk A. 7. Doodeman N. 9. Haen D. 11. Culum A. 28. Verheydt T.	16. van den Berg C. (G) 43. Olde Keizer C. 17. Zumberi V. 35. Achouitar O. 28. Buttner A. (C) 33. Marschalk M. 21. Schwarz R. 13. Pinto J. 19. Tahaui A. 7. Hoogewerf D. 9. Huth E.
Substitutes
23. Abildgaard L. 47. Baartmans S. 17. Bamba S. 6. Besselink G. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 20. El Allouchi M. 41. Kotte T. (G) 14. Mathijsen J. 46. Scheepens K. 19. van Aalst U. 22. van Loon P.	20. Bannis N. 2. Bonnah S. 31. Brull M. (G) 30. Driezen M. 8. Moustafa A. 34. Ouallil Y. 11. Ranon Y. 23. Siecker J. (G) 38. te Veluwe K. 22. Thenu X. 41. Vlietstra T. 27. Zonneveld N.
Coaches
Stegeman J.	Rehm R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', Tahaui A. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Hoogma J. ⚽, Haen D. (A),
32', 2 - 0, Culum A. ⚽, Et Taibi A. (A),
45+2', Doodeman N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hoogma J. ↓, Mathijsen J. ↑,
60', Marschalk M. 🟨,
65', Verheydt T. ↓, van Aalst U. ↑,
68', Huth E. ↓, Bannis N. ↑,
68', Hoogewerf D. ↓, Zonneveld N. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Behounek R. ⚽, Culum A. (A),
75', Culum A. ↓, Bamba S. ↑,
75', Zarrouk A. ↓, Besselink G. ↑,
84', Schwarz R. ↓, Ranon Y. ↑,
84', Pinto J. ↓, te Veluwe K. ↑,
88', Doodeman N. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
88', Haen D. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
89', Tahaui A. ↓, Ouallil Y. ↑,
90+3', Ouallil Y. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 19).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 3.

Willem II is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vitesse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Willem II might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Schuurman J. (Knock)

There will not play in Vitesse: Steffen M. (Leg Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:34. (average 1.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:23. (average 0.8:2.3).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Vitesse: 2.39%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	15:15	0	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.02.26	Jong Utrecht - Willem II	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Willem II - Waalwijk	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Jong Ajax - Willem II	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Willem II - VVV-Venlo	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	FC Eindhoven - Willem II	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWLWW
- Vitesse Arnhem
Dutch Eerste Divisie
14.02.26	Vitesse - VVV-Venlo	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	FC Oss - Vitesse	1:2 ✺
02.02.26	Vitesse - FC Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Vitesse - Dordrecht	1:2 ✺
26.01.26	ADO Den Haag - Vitesse	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.09.25	Vitesse - Willem II	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
24.04.22	Willem II - Vitesse	1:0
22.08.21	Vitesse - Willem II	0:3
21.03.21	Vitesse - Willem II	0:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.20	Willem II - Vitesse	0:2
Dutch Eredivisie
31.10.20	Willem II - Vitesse	1:3
10.08.19	Willem II - Vitesse	0:2

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