Match Info

Liiga

Date: 22 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Pohjantahti-Areena (Hämeenlinna)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Sweden	TV4 Play


	HPK		Lukko

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.55
	2.65	4.00	2.20
	2.48	3.85	2.6	Watch
	2.39	3.75	2.59
	2.5	4.11	2.38	Watch
	2.3	3.65	2.5
	2.36	4	2.54	Watch
	2.32	3.8	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.4)	3.9 ↑ (3.72)	2.49 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPK
38.7%

Draw
23.9%

Lukko
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

24.9%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

27.8%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

HPK - Lukko Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
1. Saarinen K. (G)	30. Salonen D. (G)
43. Kukkonen M. (A)	9. Stenqvist J.
39. Nychuk C.	27. Seppala P.
81. Oden J.	16. Beaucage A.
12. Paivarinta S. (A)	93. Ruohomaa M. (A)
94. Hakulinen A. (C)	18. Liedes H. (C)
Line 2
7. Pyke G.	34. Viitasalo N.
4. Jokirinne V.	43. Valila A.
11. de Jong E.	87. Saarela A. (A)
29. MacEachern C.	91. Robert F.
95. Ranford B.	25. Saarela A.
Line 3
5. Andzans A.	96. Harpur C.
38. Wallenius E.	56. Olsson A.
28. Kukuca A.	23. Trakht D.
15. Korhonen O.	29. Vanninen A.
10. Vesterinen R.	90. Hamalainen L.
Line 4
16. Gabrielsson H.	15. Tukiainen J.
25. Huttunen H.	48. Ikonen H.
64. Kainulainen H.	24. Krannila J.
44. Kopiloff O.	47. Haapanen T.
Substitutes
8. Alitalo V.	57. Mensonen J.
65. Crespin J. (G)	32. Raanta A. (G)
Coaches
. Manner M.	. Lamsa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 0)
2nd Period (1 - 2)
04:54, 0 - 1, Liedes H. (G), Valila A. (A), Viitasalo N. (A2)
11:24, Saarinen K. (2 min),
11:49, 0 - 2, Beaucage A. (G), Ruohomaa M. (A), Stenqvist J. (A2)
12:32, Robert F. (2 min),
13:02, 1 - 2, de Jong E. (G), Korhonen O. (A), Jokirinne V. (A2)
15:44, Paivarinta S. (2 min),
19:07, Beaucage A. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
18:47, 1 - 3, Haapanen T. (G), Krannila J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Recently, Lukko has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, HPK has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 36:54 (averaging 1.8:2.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPK against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 25:25 goals (averaging 2.3:2.3 per game).

Outrights of Finnish SM-liiga for now

Hameenlinna: 2.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29:23	20
12	Hameenlinna	11	3	3	0	5	23:32	15

Last Results with these Odds

Lukko - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HPK Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	HPK - TPS	3:1 ✺
15.09.26	KalPa - HPK	7:0 ✺
08.09.26	HPK - Ilves	0:4 ✺
04.09.26	HIFK - HPK	5:3 ✺
01.09.26	Mikkelin Jukurit - HPK	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLLW
- Lukko Hockey
Finnish SM-liiga
19.09.26	HIFK - Lukko	2:3 AET ✺
17.09.26	Lukko - Vaasan Sport	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Lukko - JYP	0:5 ✺
05.09.26	Lukko - Jokerit	7:2 ✺
01.09.26	Lukko - Ilves	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	HPK - Lukko	4:3 penalties
Finnish Pitsiturnaus
07.08.26	HPK - Lukko	2:0
Finnish SM-liiga
24.03.26	HPK - Lukko	4:1
23.03.26	Lukko - HPK	1:3
21.03.26	HPK - Lukko	2:0
20.03.26	Lukko - HPK	2:1
31.01.26	HPK - Lukko	0:1 OT

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