Match Info

KHL

Date: 11 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Lada Arena (Togliatti)


	Lada Togliatti		Severstal Cherepovets

	1	X	2
	3.95	4.3	1.77
	3.77	4.31	1.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.86 ↑ (3.69)	4.31 ↑ (4.3)	1.8 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lada Togliatti
24.7%

Draw
22.2%

Severstal Cherepovets
53.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.3%

22.6%

51.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

22.6%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lada Togliatti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Severstal Cherepovets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lada Togliatti than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Severstal Cherepovets than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	16.7%	83.3%

Lada Togliatti - Severstal Cherepovets Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Severstal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Severstal Cherepovets will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
60. Bocharov I. (G)	29. Samoilov A. (G)
99. Makarov N.	32. Gregoire T.
42. Syomin V. (C)	7. Burenov N.
66. Mikhailov N.	88. Dumbadze D. (A)
13. Sawchuk R.	66. Podshivalov I. (A)
76. Tyanulin A. (A)	18. Veryayev D.
Line 2
8. Zemchyonok A.	77. Fomin M.
64. Belousov M.	21. Kamalov N.
84. Altybarmakyan A. (A)	23. Liska A. (C)
10. Chivilyov A.	10. Tsitsyura V.
18. Kugryshev D.	97. Chebykin N.
Line 3
15. Lineitsev D.	2. Grudinin V.
29. Bokun D.	67. Karimov T.
88. Setdikov N.	90. Chefanov I.
21. Savchik I.	53. Aimurzin D.
25. Romanov I.	99. Ilyin M.
Line 4
55. Kalimullin M.	73. Zhukov A.
72. Kuznetsov A.	81. Kazulayev D.
58. Obidin A.	6. Ivantsov I.
87. Borodin D.	12. Skorenov A.
Substitutes
1. Trushkov A. (G)	1. Shostak K. (G)
	42. Tankov K.
Coaches
. Desyatkov P.	. Kozyrev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
01:43, 1 - 0, Savchik I. (G), Setdikov N. (A), Romanov I. (A2)
13:30, 1 - 1, Kazulayev D. (G), Burenov N. (A), Ivantsov I. (A2)
17:26, Altybarmakyan A. (2 min),
2nd Period (0 - 1)
01:04, 1 - 2, Liska A. (G), Chebykin N. (A),
09:21, Ilyin M. (2 min),
14:29, Tankov K. (2 min),
3rd Period (0 - 1)
02:27, (2 min),
17:26, Fomin M. (2 min),
19:56, 1 - 3, Grudinin V. (G),

Preview

Severstal is Qualified for KHL (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lada won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lada has had a series of home games.

In this match, Severstal is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Lada won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 32:40. (average 2.3:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lada won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1.7:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Lada Togliatti - the odds 3.69 are the expected chance of winning is 26.31%, but this team recently wins 8% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Lada Togliatti
KHL
08.03.26	Lada Togliatti - Spartak Moscow	2:5 ✺
07.03.26	Lada Togliatti - Spartak Moscow	1:7 ✺
03.03.26	Lada Togliatti - Ak Bars Kazan	5:3 ✺
01.03.26	Lada Togliatti - Shanghai Dragons	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Ak Bars Kazan - Lada Togliatti	4:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 LLWLW
- Severstal Cherepovets
KHL
09.03.26	Lokomotiv Yaroslavl - Severstal Cherepovets	4:3 OT ✺
02.03.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Lokomotiv Yaroslavl	2:3 penalties ✺
27.02.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Metallurg Magnitogorsk - Severstal Cherepovets	3:4 OT ✺
22.02.26	Barys Astana - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

KHL
03.01.26	Severstal Cherepovets - Lada Togliatti	4:2
07.12.25	Lada Togliatti - Severstal Cherepovets	2:3
23.11.25	Severstal Cherepovets - Lada Togliatti	2:0
03.12.24	Lada Togliatti - Severstal Cherepovets	1:0
27.11.24	Severstal Cherepovets - Lada Togliatti	0:3
02.11.23	Lada Togliatti - Severstal Cherepovets	1:4
25.10.23	Severstal Cherepovets - Lada Togliatti	3:4 penalties

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