Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: OPAP Arena (Athens) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jug M. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	03:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Sport
Bulgaria	19:45	Ring
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport
Denmark	18:45	TV2 Sport
Finland	19:45	Viaplay
Netherlands	18:45	ESPN
Norway	18:45	Viaplay
Poland	18:45	Viaplay
Serbia	18:45	Arena Sport
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
United Kingdom	17:45	TNT Sports


	AEK Athens		Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.8	3.6
	1.95	3.75	3.5
	2.02	3.8	3.65	Watch
	1.99	3.8	3.5
	2.02	3.81	3.62
	1.95	3.8	3.5
	2.03	3.78	3.48
	2	3.85	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.12)	3.8 ↑ (3.67)	3.55 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Athens
48%

Draw
25.1%

Ajax
26.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.9%

25.9%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

25.7%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.1%	14.3%	30.6%

AEK Athens - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 49 users predict this event. AEK will win (votes: 27 - 55.1%). Ajax will win (votes: 15 - 30.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK: 41.2% – 69%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stankovic C. (G) 29. Sidibe D. 21. Vida D. 2. Moukoudi H. 28. Hajsafi E. 5. Amrabat N. 4. Szymanski D. 8. Gacinovic M. 13. Pineda O. 14. Ponce E. 11. Araujo S. (C)	12. Gorter J. (G) 2. Rensch D. 37. Sutalo J. 30. Avila G. 4. Hato J. 23. Berghuis S. 33. Tahirovic B. 8. Taylor K. 11. Forbs C. 9. Brobbey B. 7. Bergwijn S. (C)
Substitutes
30. Athanasiadis G. (G) 19. Eliasson N. 25. Galanopoulos K. 6. Jonsson J. 20. Mantalos P. 24. Mitoglou G. 3. Mohammadi M. 70. Pizarro R. 12. Rota L. 99. Theocharis G. (G)	10. Akpom Ch. 3. Gaaei A. 39. Godts M. 38. Hlynsson K. 18. Medic J. 19. Mikautadze G. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 40. Ramaj D. (G) 17. Salah-Eddine A. 25. Sosa B. 27. van Axel Dongen A. 21. van den Boomen B.
Coaches
Almeyda M.	Steijn M.

Preview

AEK is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Ajax is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajax could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

AEK will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in AEK: Fernandes P. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Garcia L. (Knock) Vida D. (Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Mannsverk S. (Leg Injury) Vos S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Ajax: Butera E. (Knee Injury) Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Milovanovic M. (Knock) Rulli G. (Shoulder Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches AEK won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-5.

Including matches at home between the teams AEK won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
02.10.23	OFI - AEK Athens	2:0 ✺
28.09.23	AEK Athens - Atromitos Athens	2:1 ✺
25.09.23	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - AEK Athens	2:3 ✺
Greek Super League
17.09.23	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 LWWWT
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.23	Ajax - Feyenoord	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Ajax - Olympique Marseille	3:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
17.09.23	Twente - Ajax	3:1 ✺
03.09.23	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.08.23	Ajax - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
27.11.18	AEK Athens - Ajax	0:2
19.09.18	Ajax - AEK Athens	3:0

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