Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	Disney+
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	21:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Chile	17:00	Disney+
China	04:00	ZhiBo8
Colombia	15:00	Disney+
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 9
Germany	21:00	RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	21:00	Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN / App
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 4
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 10
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 17
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus
International	20:00	VIX App


	AZ Alkmaar		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	7
	1.37	4.95	6.9
	1.37	5.43	7.42
	1.39	5.41	7.02	Watch
	1.36	5	7
	1.39	5.52	7.8
	1.37	5.33	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.61)	5.27 ↑ (4.15)	7.11 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
68.8%

Draw
17.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok
13.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.2%

22.6%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

21.8%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jagiellonia Białystok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jagiellonia Białystok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	5.9%	5.9%

AZ Alkmaar - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - AZ (1.54) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (29 of 33 users predict this - 87.88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.74% – 99.02%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 21 - 95.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 34. de Wit M. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 15. Chavez Garcia M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 3. Stojinovic D. 27. Wdowik B. 31. Flach L. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 11. Imaz J. 7. Pozo A. 10. Pululu A. 80. Pietuszewski O.
Substitutes
27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 21. Kwakman D. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)	19. Cantero A. 8. Drachal D. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Martens M.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Stojinovic D. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
18', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Weslley Patati ↓, Daal R. ↑,
63', Pululu A. 🟥,
68', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
69', Pozo A. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
70', Parrott T. 🟨,
70', Goes W. 🟨,
76', Imaz J. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
87', Jensen I. 🟨,
87', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
88', Jensen I. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
88', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
88', Goes W. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,

Preview

AZ is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.

In this match, AZ is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Drita Gjilan - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.12.25	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.12.25	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
30.11.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - Shelbourne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTWLW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.12.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.12.25	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT

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