Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 18 December 2025, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Ebner S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 9
Germany	RTL+
Greece	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 8
Hungary	Sport 2
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 10
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 17
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	AZ Alkmaar		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	7
	1.37	4.95	6.9
	1.37	5.43	7.42
	1.39	5.41	7.02	Watch
	1.36	5	7
	1.39	5.52	7.8
	1.37	5.33	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.61)	5.27 ↑ (4.15)	7.11 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
68.8%

Draw
17.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

22.6%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

21.8%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AZ Alkmaar's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jagiellonia Białystok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AZ Alkmaar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jagiellonia Białystok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.2%	5.9%	5.9%

AZ Alkmaar - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - AZ (1.54) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (29 of 33 users predict this - 87.88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.74% – 99.02%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 21 - 95.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 34. de Wit M. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 15. Chavez Garcia M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 13. Vital B. 3. Stojinovic D. 27. Wdowik B. 31. Flach L. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 11. Imaz J. 7. Pozo A. 10. Pululu A. 80. Pietuszewski O.
Substitutes
27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 21. Kwakman D. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)	19. Cantero A. 8. Drachal D. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 85. Kozlowski E. 21. Lozano S. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 17. Sylla Y.
Coaches
Martens M.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Stojinovic D. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
18', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Weslley Patati ↓, Daal R. ↑,
63', Pululu A. 🟥,
68', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Sin M. ↑,
69', Pozo A. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
70', Parrott T. 🟨,
70', Goes W. 🟨,
76', Imaz J. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
87', Jensen I. 🟨,
87', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
88', Jensen I. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
88', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
88', Goes W. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,

Preview

AZ is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jagiellonia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Jagiellonia has had a series of away games.

In this match, AZ is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Drita Gjilan - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.12.25	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.12.25	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
30.11.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - Shelbourne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTWLW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.12.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.12.25	GKS Katowice - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT

Upcoming Matches