Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		Twente

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.9	2.5	Watch
	2.6	3.9	2.4
	2.62	3.7	2.52
	2.63	3.79	2.6
	2.56	3.78	2.51	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.4
	2.64	3.73	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.5)	3.76 ↓ (3.86)	2.49 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
36.8%

Draw
25.2%

Twente
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

24.5%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

24.8%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

AZ Alkmaar - Twente Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Twente will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - AZ (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 26. Smit K. 8. Clasie J. (C) 17. Jensen I. 10. Mijnans S. 27. Daal R. 9. Parrott T.	1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. (C) 23. Lemkin S. 43. Nijstad R. 39. Rots M. 6. Zerrouki R. 20. van den Belt T. 11. Rots D. 14. Hlynsson K. 27. Orjasaeter S. 10. Lammers S.
Substitutes
20. Boogaard K. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 18. Ichihara R. 6. Koopmeiners P. 45. Kovacs B. 2. Maikuma S. 35. Meerdink M. 24. Oufkir A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 7. Weslley Patati	8. Booth T. 38. Bruns M. 21. Karssies S. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 12. Peixoto G. 7. Pjaca M. 3. Propper R. 22. Tyton P. (G) 9. van Wolfswinkel R. 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 32. Verschueren A. 42. Weidmann D.
Coaches
Echteld L.	van den Brom J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Clasie J. ⚽,
32', 1 - 1, Owusu-Oduro R. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 1 - 2, Lammers S. ⚽, Hlynsson K. (A),
60', Clasie J. ↓, Koopmeiners P. ↑,
69', Jensen I. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
71', van den Belt T. ↓, Kjolo M. ↑,
71', Rots D. ↓, Verschueren A. ↑,
79', Lammers S. ↓, van Wolfswinkel R. ↑,
79', Orjasaeter S. ↓, Pjaca M. ↑,
80', Daal R. ↓, Kovacs B. ↑,
80', Penetra ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
83', Hlynsson K. ↓, Propper R. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 2, Koopmeiners P. ⚽, Owusu-Oduro R. (A),

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 4.

In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Twente is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Twente may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 13 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 24:8. (average 2.2:0.7).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Twente: 4.52% AZ Alkmaar: 4.07%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18:6	12	19
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15:7	8	16

Last Results with these Odds

AZ Alkmaar - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.77%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
23.04.26	Go Ahead Eagles - AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
12.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWTWL
- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
25.04.26	Twente - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Twente - Volendam	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Ajax - Twente	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Fortuna Sittard - Twente	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Twente - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
03.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1 ET
Dutch Eredivisie
30.11.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	1:0
25.05.25	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	3:2
14.05.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	2:3
21.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	1:0
05.05.24	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1
13.01.24	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	2:1

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