Match Info

Date: 19 October 2021, Tuesday


	Ajax		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.9	3.2
	2.25	3.75	2.9
	2.18	3.95	3.2
	2.12	3.9	3.1
	2.16	4.04	3.2
	2.2	3.75	3
	2.18	4.1	3.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.24)	3.91 ↑ (3.82)	3.13 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
44.6%

Draw
24.6%

Borussia Dortmund
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

24.9%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

17.6%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ajax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+15.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Borussia Dortmund could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.5%	36.5%	27.1%

Ajax - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 96 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 35 - 36.5%). Borussia D will win (votes: 26 - 27.1%). It will Tie (votes: 35 - 36.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 26.9% – 46.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Ajax has currently - 6, has a good chance of 1st (67%), has a chance of 2nd (31%), has a very small chance of 3rd (2%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (98%), has a good chance of qtrs (62%), has a chance of semis (35%), has a chance of final (19%), has a small chance of win league (10%).

Borussia D has currently - 6, has a chance of 1st (32%), has a good chance of 2nd (61%), has a small chance of 3rd (6%), has a good chance of round of 16 (93%), has a chance of qtrs (45%), has a chance of semis (19%), has a small chance of final (7%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Now both teams are in good shape.

Recently Borussia D have a series of home games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
16.10.21	Heerenveen - Ajax	0:2 ✺
03.10.21	Ajax - Utrecht	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.09.21	Ajax - Beşiktaş	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
25.09.21	Ajax - Groningen	3:0 ✺
21.09.21	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWWW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
16.10.21	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	3:1 ✺
02.10.21	Borussia Dortmund - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.09.21	Borussia Dortmund - Sporting Lisbon	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.09.21	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Borussia Dortmund	1:0 ✺
19.09.21	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.11.12	Ajax - Borussia Dortmund	1:4
18.09.12	Borussia Dortmund - Ajax	1:0

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