The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ajax 46.9%
Draw 28.4%
Union Berlin 24.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
51.2%
26.5%
22.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
59.5%
30.8%
19.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+12.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Union Berlin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
75%
12%
13%
Ajax - Union Berlin Predictions
Users Predictions:
108 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 81 - 75%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 14 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 12%). Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 66.8% – 83.2%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Ajax was already of knockout phase, has a good chance of round of 16 (72%), has a chance of qtrs (49%), has a chance of semis (30%), has a chance of final (17%), has a small chance of win league (9%), has currently - , has not chance of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
Union Berlin was already of knockout phase, has a chance of round of 16 (28%), has a small chance of qtrs (14%), has a small chance of semis (7%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%), has currently - 12, has not chance of 1st, was already of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd.
This event has big quality75, big importance73, big match rating74. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
One and the other team during the last matches got a chain of wins.
Ajax could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Ajax will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Ajax: Baas Y.
(Knock)
Kaplan A.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Union Berlin: Haberer J.
(Yellow Cards)
Schafer A.
(Foot Injury)
Trimmel C.
(Yellow Cards)
Last 1 head-to-head matches Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.
Including matches at home between the teams Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.
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