Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Promotion - Semi-finals

Date: 13 May 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yanmar Stadion (Almere) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Netherlands	20:00	Canal+, ESPN


	Almere City		Willem II

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.02	3.45	3.45	Watch
	2.05	3.63	3.56
	2.17	3.46	3.19	Watch
	2	3.3	3.3
	1.99	3.58	3.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.14)	3.5 ↓ (3.7)	3.41 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almere City
46%

Draw
26.7%

Willem II
27.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.5%

25.1%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

25.5%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almere City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almere City than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	33.3%	27.8%

Almere City - Willem II Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Almere City will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Willem II will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almere City: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Willem II (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Willem II (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kuijsten T. (G) 2. Reith B. 22. van de Blaak E. 4. Lawrence J. (C) 16. Takahashi N. 21. el Dahri H. 8. de Haan M. 17. Poku E. 23. Jacobs Ja. 40. Dors M. 9. Druijf F.	1. Didillon Hodl T. (G) 3. Stam F. 30. Behounek R. 4. Hoogma J. (C) 24. Tjoe a On N. 7. Doodeman N. 8. Twigt C. 6. Besselink G. 20. El Allouchi M. 17. Bamba S. 19. van Aalst U.
Substitutes
5. Bijleveld T. 6. Cornelisse E. 19. de Nijs O. 15. Engel M. 29. Huisman B. 3. Jacobs Jo. 20. Kalisvaart J. 28. Providence R. 10. Rijkhoff J. 25. Sam A. 30. van der Wilt J. (G) 1. Wendlinger J. (G)	23. Abildgaard L. 47. Baartmans S. 11. Culum A. 49. de Jonge M. 31. de Leeuw K. (G) 15. Et Taibi A. 9. Haen D. 14. Mathijsen J. 21. van der Steen W. (G) 45. van Esdonk J. 22. van Loon P. 28. Verheydt T.
Coaches
Rijsdijk J.	Stegeman J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Bamba S. ⚽, Stam F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Jacobs Ja. ↓, de Nijs O. ↑,
61', Druijf F. ↓, Rijkhoff J. ↑,
66', Bamba S. ↓, Baartmans S. ↑,
72', El Allouchi M. (Penalty Awarded),
76', de Haan M. ↓, Cornelisse E. ↑,
76', Reith B. ↓, Sam A. ↑,
81', El Allouchi M. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
85', van Aalst U. 🟨,
89', Dors M. ↓, Providence R. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almere City won 2.

Almere City is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Willem II is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Willem II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Willem II: Lachkar A. (Groin Injury) Schuurman J. (Knock)

There are questionable in Willem II: Ciranni A. (Injury) Zarrouk A. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Almere City won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Almere City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	10:32	-22	2

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Almere City: 4.06% Willem II: 0.06%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almere City FC
Dutch Eredivisie
09.05.26	De Graafschap - Almere City	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Almere City - De Graafschap	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Almere City - Den Bosch	3:0 ✺
29.04.26	Den Bosch - Almere City	2:3 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.04.26	VVV-Venlo - Almere City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWWL
- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
09.05.26	Willem II - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
05.05.26	Waalwijk - Willem II	0:1 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.04.26	Dordrecht - Willem II	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	Willem II - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Willem II - Almere City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
12.04.26	Willem II - Almere City	2:1
22.08.25	Almere City - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	Willem II - Almere City	0:2
04.10.24	Almere City - Willem II	0:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.01.23	Almere City - Willem II	1:0
21.10.22	Willem II - Almere City	1:1
Dutch Eredivisie
16.05.16	Willem II - Almere City	5:2

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