Match Info

Premier League - Round 21

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	5	3.9	1.67
	4.4	3.9	1.75
	5.05	3.95	1.7
	5.22	4	1.7	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.67
	5.33	3.96	1.74	Watch
	5	4	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.97 ↑ (3.84)	3.92 ↓ (4.1)	1.7 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
19.2%

Draw
24.4%

Manchester United
56.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

23.2%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

22.8%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burnley's form might have worsened.

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burnley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.4%	5.4%	89.2%

Burnley - Manchester United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Man Utd (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Burnley (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester United will win (65 of 73 users predict this - 89.04%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.87% – 96.21%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester United will win (34 of 35 users predict this - 97.14%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 2.6%). Man Utd (votes: 36 - 94.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 29. Laurent J. 5. Esteve M. 12. Humphreys B. 2. Walker K. (C) 8. Ugochukwu L. 16. Florentino 23. Lucas Pires 10. Edwards M. 28. Mejbri H. 27. Broja A.	31. Lammens S. (G) 2. Dalot D. 26. Heaven A. 6. Martinez Li. 23. Shaw L. 25. Ugarte M. 18. Casemiro 13. Dorgu P. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Cunha M. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
11. Anthony J. 35. Barnes A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 18. Ekdal H. 9. Foster L. 3. Hartman Q. 22. Sonne O. 17. Tchaouna L. 13. Weiss M. (G)	1. Bayindir A. (G) 38. Fletcher J. 61. Lacey S. 5. Maguire H. 37. Mainoo K. 12. Malacia T. 7. Mount M. 15. Yoro L. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Parker S.	Fletcher D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Heaven A. (Own goal),
41', Mejbri H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Sesko B. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
58', Mejbri H. ↓, Anthony J. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Sesko B. ⚽, Dorgu P. (A),
61', Fernandes B. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
61', Heaven A. ↓, Yoro L. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Anthony J. ⚽, Edwards M. (A),
74', Cunha M. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
74', Casemiro ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
76', Broja A. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
84', Ugarte M. ↓, Lacey S. ↑,
89', Parker S. 🟨,
90+2', Edwards M. ↓, Sonne O. ↑,
90+5', Foster L. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 0.

Burnley is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Man Utd has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man Utd is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Flemming Z. (Knock) Foster L. (International duty) Mejbri H. (International duty) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Tuanzebe A. (International duty) Worrall J. (Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Diallo A. (International duty) Maguire H. (Hamstring Injury) Mazraoui N. (International duty) Mbeumo B. (International duty) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Esteve M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Mainoo K. (Calf Injury) Mount M. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 13:29. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Manchester Utd	5	1	2	2	8:8	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
03.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	Burnley - Everton	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Bournemouth - Burnley	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Burnley - Fulham	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLTTL
- Manchester United
English Premier League
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Aston Villa - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
15.12.25	Manchester United - Bournemouth	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2
27.04.24	Manchester United - Burnley	1:1
23.09.23	Burnley - Manchester United	0:1
English League Cup
21.12.22	Manchester United - Burnley	2:0
English Premier League
08.02.22	Burnley - Manchester United	1:1
30.12.21	Manchester United - Burnley	3:1
18.04.21	Manchester United - Burnley	3:1

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