Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Aston Villa		Brentford

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.5	2.45
	2.70	3.50	2.45
	2.78	3.45	2.48
	2.8	3.6	2.53
	2.68	3.69	2.58	Watch
	2.75	3.55	2.45
	2.81	3.6	2.62	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.66)	3.56 ↓ (3.64)	2.51 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
34.8%

Draw
26.9%

Brentford
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

26.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

27.5%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	21.1%	36.8%

Aston Villa - Brentford Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Brentford will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aston Villa (1.93) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - Aston Villa (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - yes (1.53) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Cards O/U 3.5 - over (1.90) (votes: 83%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suzuki Z. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 5. Mings T. 13. Ruggeri M. 8. Kamara B. 35. Joao Gomes 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 44. Manzambi J. 11. Jackson N.	1. Kelleher C. (G) 33. Kayode M. 44. Schuster J. 20. Ajer K. 25. Diouf M. 6. Yarmolyuk Y. 27. Janelt V. (C) 19. Anthony J. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 19. Mbaye I. 14. Torres P. 29. Wan-Bissaka A.	14. Carvalho F. 48. Fredrick B. 2. Hickey A. 8. Jensen M. 11. Ouattara Da. 18. Sangare M. 12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 4. van den Berg S. 13. Wilson C.
Coaches
Emery U.	Andrews K.

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 16th and 4th in the Promotion - Champions League League phase).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Brentford could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Aston Villa has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Aston Villa: Maatsen I. (Ankle Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Brentford: Furo K. (Surgery) Jensen M. (Muscle Injury) van den Berg S. (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Aston Villa: Goretzka L. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Brentford: Collins N. (Calf Injury) Damsgaard M. (Ankle Injury) Dasilva J. (Muscle Injury) Ouattara Da. (Illness).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Aston Villa has recorded 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:25 (averaging 1.3:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Aston Villa against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 loss, with 17:12 goals (averaging 1.9:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10:4	6	9
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Sevilla - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
19.09.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
16.09.26	Coventry City - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.09.26	Club Brugge - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWWLW
- Brentford FC
English Premier League
18.09.26	Brentford - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
English League Cup
15.09.26	Reading - Brentford	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
12.09.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Brentford - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Leeds United - Brentford	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
01.02.26	Aston Villa - Brentford	0:1
English League Cup
16.09.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0
08.03.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	0:1
04.12.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:1
06.04.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:3
17.12.23	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:2

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