Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 1
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Canal+, RTL
Azerbaijan	23:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	Play6, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2, Play Sports 6, RTBF Tipik
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	15:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	RIK 1
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	21:00	RTL, RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, ANT 1 Greece, COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	M4 Sport
Iceland	19:00	Stod 2 Sport 2, Viaplay
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	22:00	Sport 2
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	04:00	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:00	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium
Netherlands	21:00	Sporza, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Papua New Guinea	05:00	TVWan Sports
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	21:00	Sport TV1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Football, SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RTL, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus
International	19:00	VIX App


	Athletic Bilbao		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4
	2.15	3.2	3.6
	2.28	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.31	3.24	3.5
	2.29	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.6
	2.32	3.19	3.5
	2.3	3.25	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.97)	3.2 ↓ (3.52)	3.49 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
42.6%

Draw
29.9%

Manchester United
27.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.2%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

27.5%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.2%	10.8%	23%

Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 47 - 70.1%). Man Utd will win (votes: 12 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 59.1% – 81.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Man Utd (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Man Utd (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Man Utd (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Athletic (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (1.64) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Man Utd (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 16 - 57.1%). Man Utd (votes: 11 - 39.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 3. Vivian D. 5. Alvarez Y. 17. Berchiche Y. 23. Jauregizar M. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 9. Williams I. 7. Berenguer A. 10. Williams N. 21. Sannadi M.	24. Onana A. (G) 15. Yoro L. 5. Maguire H. 2. Lindelof V. 3. Mazraoui N. 25. Ugarte M. 18. Casemiro 13. Dorgu P. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 9. Hojlund R. 17. Garnacho A.
Substitutes
32. Boiro A. 28. Canales P. 11. Djalo A. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 12. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 14. Nunez U. 4. Paredes A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M.	41. Amass H. 1. Bayindir A. (G) 4. de Ligt M. 16. Diallo A. 14. Eriksen C. 55. Fredricson T. 22. Heaton T. (G) 80. Kamason J. 37. Mainoo K. 85. Mantato B. 7. Mount M. 23. Shaw L.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
30', 0 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Ugarte M. (A),
35', Vivian D. 🟥,
36', Berchiche Y. 🟨,
37', 0 - 2, Fernandes B. (Pen),
42', de Marcos O. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
42', Berenguer A. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
45', 0 - 3, Fernandes B. ⚽, Ugarte M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
58', Simon U. 🟨,
61', Alvarez Y. 🟨,
65', Maguire H. ↓, de Ligt M. ↑,
65', Ugarte M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
74', Mazraoui N. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
77', Mount M. 🟨,
79', Williams N. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
84', Garnacho A. 🟨,
84', Garnacho A. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
84', Dorgu P. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
87', Williams I. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
90+4', Yoro L. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Athletic is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Man Utd is playing unpredictably (in the last 5 games, wins - 1).

Athletic could have an advantage in physical - more days for rest in the last days.

Athletic will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Bayindir A. (Ankle Injury) Collyer T. (Knock) Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4 (average 2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams, Athletic won 1 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
23.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.04.25	Glasgow Rangers - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWT
- Manchester United
English Premier League
27.04.25	Bournemouth - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Manchester United - Lyon	5:4 ET ✺
English Premier League
13.04.25	Newcastle United - Manchester United	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.04.25	Lyon - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.08.23	Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
UEFA Europa League
15.03.12	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	2:1

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