What is the expert prediction for Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Athletic Bilbao vs Manchester United Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, May 01, 2025)

Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Athletic Bilbao		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4
	2.15	3.2	3.6
	2.28	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.31	3.24	3.5
	2.29	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.6
	2.32	3.19	3.5
	2.3	3.25	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.97)	3.2 ↓ (3.52)	3.49 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao
42.6%

Draw
29.9%

Manchester United
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.2%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

27.5%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Athletic Bilbao's form might have worsened.

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.2%	10.8%	23%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 67 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 47 - 70.1%). Man Utd will win (votes: 12 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 59.1% – 81.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Man Utd (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Man Utd (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Man Utd (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Athletic (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (1.64) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Man Utd (3.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 32 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 16 - 50%). Man Utd (votes: 15 - 46.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 3. Vivian D. 5. Alvarez Y. 17. Berchiche Y. 23. Jauregizar M. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 9. Williams I. 7. Berenguer A. 10. Williams N. 21. Sannadi M.	24. Onana A. (G) 15. Yoro L. 5. Maguire H. 2. Lindelof V. 3. Mazraoui N. 25. Ugarte M. 18. Casemiro 13. Dorgu P. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 9. Hojlund R. 17. Garnacho A.
Substitutes
32. Boiro A. 28. Canales P. 11. Djalo A. 20. Gomez U. 2. Gorosabel A. 12. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 14. Nunez U. 4. Paredes A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M.	41. Amass H. 1. Bayindir A. (G) 4. de Ligt M. 16. Diallo A. 14. Eriksen C. 55. Fredricson T. 22. Heaton T. (G) 80. Kamason J. 37. Mainoo K. 85. Mantato B. 7. Mount M. 23. Shaw L.
Coaches
Valverde E.	Amorim R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
30', 0 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Ugarte M. (A),
35', Vivian D. 🟥,
36', Berchiche Y. 🟨,
37', 0 - 2, Fernandes B. (Pen),
42', de Marcos O. ↓, Gorosabel A. ↑,
42', Berenguer A. ↓, Paredes A. ↑,
45', 0 - 3, Fernandes B. ⚽, Ugarte M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
58', Simon U. 🟨,
61', Alvarez Y. 🟨,
65', Maguire H. ↓, de Ligt M. ↑,
65', Ugarte M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
74', Mazraoui N. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
77', Mount M. 🟨,
79', Williams N. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
84', Garnacho A. 🟨,
84', Garnacho A. ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
84', Dorgu P. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
87', Williams I. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
90+4', Yoro L. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Athletic is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Man Utd is playing unpredictably (in the last 5 games, wins - 1).

Athletic could have an advantage in physical - more days for rest in the last days.

Athletic will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Bayindir A. (Ankle Injury) Collyer T. (Knock) Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Athletic won 2 matches, drew 1 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4 (average 2:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams, Athletic won 1 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
23.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.04.25	Glasgow Rangers - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWT
- Manchester United
English Premier League
27.04.25	Bournemouth - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Manchester United - Lyon	5:4 ET ✺
English Premier League
13.04.25	Newcastle United - Manchester United	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.04.25	Lyon - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.08.23	Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
UEFA Europa League
15.03.12	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	2:1

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