Match Info

Premier League - Round 12

Date: 28 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Turkestan Arena (Turkestan)

Referee: Tassybayev A. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Atyrau		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.98	3	2.38	Watch
	3.02	3.1	2.31
	3.23	2.97	2.27	Watch
	2.88	2.8	2.45
	3.19	3.06	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.2)	2.99 ↓ (3.47)	2.35 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atyrau
30.1%

Draw
30.8%

Tobol Kostanay
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

26.5%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

25.2%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atyrau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atyrau's form might have worsened.

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tobol Kostanay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atyrau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	12.5%	56.2%

Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Atyrau will win (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Tobol will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Tobol (3.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Tobol (1.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Khatkevich E. (G) 2. Tkachenko Y. 6. Yudenkov R. 5. Satanov S. 10. Dzhumatov R. (C) 78. Khvalko E. 55. Noyok O. 17. Kalmuratov K. 14. Dorofeev K. 90. Yusov D. 4. Rabiu M.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 17. Zuev A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 13. Cisse A. 6. Myakish M. 7. Zhumashev Z. 18. Milovanovic U. 14. Talal A.
Substitutes
9. Abdulla A. 27. Berdesh N. 7. Henrique 99. Kereev B. 21. Orynbasar D. 77. Pangerey M. 12. Sagat N. (G) 11. Seytkaliev A. 18. Trufanov Y. 25. Zhumagali S.	38. Bakitzhanov A. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 30. Guerra L. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 51. Mukhin D. (G) 33. Pivovarov I. 29. Usenov D. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A.
Coaches
Cheburin V.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Zuev A. ⚽, Talal A. (A),
40', Yusov D. ↓, Henrique ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Cisse A. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
62', Khvalko E. 🟨,
67', Tkachenko Y. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Rabiu M. ⚽,
82', Milovanovic U. ↓, Guerra L. ↑,
85', Rabiu M. ↓, Trufanov Y. ↑,
88', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
90+2', Trufanov Y. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 2.

Recent performances by Atyrau have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tobol has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Tobol could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atyrau won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:27. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Atyrau won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
15	Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18:28	-10	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
23.05.26	Zhetysu - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
17.05.26	Aktobe - Atyrau	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Okzhetpes - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Atyrau - Altai Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.04.26	Atyrau - Zhetysu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTTWL
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
23.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy	0:3 ✺
17.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
Kazakh Cup
13.05.26	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
13.09.25	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	1:0
30.05.25	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	5:0
31.08.24	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:1
23.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
Kazakh Cup
19.06.24	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	4:0
29.05.24	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	2:0
08.07.23	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	0:1

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