Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Armenia	17:30	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 7
Azerbaijan	17:30	Setanta Sports 2
Brazil	10:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	16:30	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	09:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 1
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	17:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 7, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Sony LIV
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	19:30	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	15:30	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	19:30	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	07:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	16:30	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 3, Arena Sport 3
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 7
Tajikistan	18:30	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Turkmenistan	18:30	Setanta Sports 2
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	18:30	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.5	9	Watch
	1.27	5.9	10.5	Watch
	1.28	6.69	9.8
	1.27	6.56	9.02	Watch
	1.25	6	9.5	Watch
	1.28	6.91	11.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)	6.43 ↑ (6.16)	9.82 ↑ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
75.4%

Draw
14.9%

Hamburger SV
9.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.8%

15.4%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hamburger SV might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayer Leverkusen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamburger SV could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	17.1%	2.9%

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Bayer (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 24. Garcia A. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 10. Tillman M. 14. Schick P.	12. Tangvik S. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 24. Capaldo N. (C) 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Gronbaek A. 14. Philippe R. 49. Stange O.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 5. Bade L. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 21. Lucas 15. Oermann T. 19. Poku E.	45. Balde F. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 18. Jatta B. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 28. Muheim M. 43. Nandja S. 15. Poulsen Y.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
25', Schick P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, Vieira F. ⚽, Capaldo N. (A),
62', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
62', Culbreath M. ↓, Arthur ↑,
62', Andrich R. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
63', Philippe R. ↓, Muheim M. ↑,
66', Arthur 🟨,
77', Stange O. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
77', Vieira F. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
77', Omari W. ↓, Nandja S. ↑,
78', Capaldo N. 🟨,
78', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
84', Garcia A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
89', Torunarigha J. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Bayer is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Tella N. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Kofane C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Calf Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:10. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:4. (average 3.2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	4	1	2	16:12	4	13
11	Hamburger SV	7	3	0	4	6:16	-10	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 2.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
09.05.26	Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
25.04.26	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
10.05.26	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
17.02.18	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
24.09.17	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:0
03.02.17	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
10.09.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:1
13.03.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	1:0
17.10.15	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0

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