Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 34

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 7
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 7, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, Arena Sport 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 7
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Bayer Leverkusen		Hamburger SV

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.5	9	Watch
	1.27	5.9	10.5	Watch
	1.28	6.69	9.8
	1.27	6.56	9.02	Watch
	1.25	6	9.5	Watch
	1.28	6.91	11.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)	6.43 ↑ (6.16)	9.82 ↑ (6.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
75.4%

Draw
14.9%

Hamburger SV
9.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

15.4%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.7%

15.6%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hamburger SV might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bayer Leverkusen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hamburger SV could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	17.1%	2.9%

Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Bayer (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 12. Tapsoba E. 42. Culbreath M. 24. Garcia A. 25. Palacios E. 20. Grimaldo A. 30. Maza I. 10. Tillman M. 14. Schick P.	12. Tangvik S. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 24. Capaldo N. (C) 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Gronbaek A. 14. Philippe R. 49. Stange O.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 5. Bade L. 17. Ben Seghir E. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 6. Fernandez E. 7. Hofmann J. 21. Lucas 15. Oermann T. 19. Poku E.	45. Balde F. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 18. Jatta B. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 28. Muheim M. 43. Nandja S. 15. Poulsen Y.
Coaches
Hjulmand K.	Polzin M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
25', Schick P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, Vieira F. ⚽, Capaldo N. (A),
62', Tillman M. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
62', Culbreath M. ↓, Arthur ↑,
62', Andrich R. ↓, Ben Seghir E. ↑,
63', Philippe R. ↓, Muheim M. ↑,
66', Arthur 🟨,
77', Stange O. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
77', Vieira F. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
77', Omari W. ↓, Nandja S. ↑,
78', Capaldo N. 🟨,
78', 1 - 1, Quansah J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
84', Garcia A. ↓, Lucas ↑,
89', Torunarigha J. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Bayer is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Tella N. (Muscle Injury) Terrier M. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Hamburg: Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Kofane C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Calf Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 25:10. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:4. (average 3.2:0.7).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
09.05.26	Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen	3:1 ✺
02.05.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
25.04.26	Köln - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
10.05.26	Hamburger SV - Freiburg	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Hamburger SV - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Werder Bremen - Hamburger SV	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
17.02.18	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
24.09.17	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:0
03.02.17	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
10.09.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	3:1
13.03.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Hamburger SV	1:0
17.10.15	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0

Upcoming Matches