Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 23 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio La Independencia (Tunja)

Referee: Marquez C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Boyacá Chicó		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	2	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.78
	3.7	3.15	2.08	Watch
	4.13	3.15	2.07
	3.86	3.21	2.03	Watch
	3.75	2.9	2.05
	4.03	3.09	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.48)	3.14 ↑ (3.1)	2 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boyacá Chicó
23.6%

Draw
29.7%

Deportes Tolima
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

30.1%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

29.2%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boyacá Chicó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	20%	70%

Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Boyacá Chicó will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 14 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportes Tolima: 49.9% – 90.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Boyacá Chicó (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Boyacá Chicó (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Denis D. (G) 2. Saldana A. 25. Palma J. 24. Banguero A. 13. Martinez Y. 8. Salazar S. 28. Diaz J. 3. Quiceno J. 11. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 18. Cabrera Y. 9. Molina J. (C)	22. Marquinez L. (G) 33. Mosquera J. 3. Angulo J. 5. Mera J. 20. Hernandez J. 32. Guzman S. 80. Rovira B. (C) 11. Valencia J. 10. Torres Patino J. P. 24. Parra Osorio A. 9. Sandoval L.
Substitutes
6. Aedo A. 17. Caicedo O. 1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 19. Castillo J. 22. Diaz Montes J. d. J. 7. Montano I. 20. Valencia N.	13. Alvarez E. 23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 31. Moreno Y. 21. Parra Y. A. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 14. Ricardo E. 29. Sanchez N. 25. Zapata N.
Coaches
Gomez J.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Salazar S. ↓, Aedo A. ↑,
33', Valencia J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Aedo A. ⚽, Ramirez Raigosa D. A. (A),
42', Torres Patino J. P. 🟨,
43', Banguero A. 🟨,
45+6', Rovira B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Valencia J. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
46', Mera J. ↓, Pedrozo D. ↑,
46', Mosquera J. ↓, Ricardo E. ↑,
65', Ricardo E. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
67', Saldana A. 🟨,
78', Martinez Y. 🟥,
83', Molina J. ↓, Valencia N. ↑,
83', Saldana A. ↓, Montano I. ↑,
87', Hernandez J. ↓, Parra Y. A. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Moreno Y. ⚽, Parra Osorio A. (A),
90+4', Ramirez Raigosa D. A. ↓, Diaz Montes J. d. J. ↑,
90+4', Cabrera Y. ↓, Caicedo O. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 0.

Boyacá Chicó has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportes Tolima is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Boyacá Chicó may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportes Tolima is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boyacá Chicó won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:34. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Boyacá Chicó won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
14	Chico	11	3	3	5	10:18	-8	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
18.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
27.02.26	Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLLL
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
19.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Fortaleza CEIF	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	América de Cali - Deportes Tolima	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.03.26	Deportes Tolima - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	OHiggins - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
14.09.25	Deportes Tolima - Boyacá Chicó	4:0
01.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:4
14.09.24	Deportes Tolima - Boyacá Chicó	2:1
01.03.24	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	1:1
29.09.23	Deportes Tolima - Boyacá Chicó	2:0
23.04.23	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	2:0
07.03.21	Boyacá Chicó - Deportes Tolima	2:1

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