Match Info

Premier League - Round 28

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Barrott S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Brentford

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.9	1.75
	4.1	3.75	1.83
	4.45	3.8	1.8
	4.49	3.9	1.81
	4.51	4.04	1.78	Watch
	4.2	3.7	1.75
	4.45	4	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↑ (4.18)	3.87 ↓ (3.91)	1.79 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
21.9%

Draw
24.7%

Brentford
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

24.6%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.7%

24.2%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Brentford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	7.9%	81%

Burnley - Brentford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Burnley (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Brentford (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brentford will win (51 of 63 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.25% – 90.65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brentford will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 3 - 12%). Brentford (votes: 21 - 84%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 12. Humphreys B. 4. Worrall J. 5. Esteve M. (C) 29. Laurent J. 20. Ward-Prowse J. 28. Mejbri H. 23. Lucas Pires 7. Bruun Larsen J. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 33. Kayode M. 20. Ajer K. 4. van den Berg S. 3. Henry R. 18. Yarmolyuk Y. 8. Jensen M. (C) 19. Ouattara Da. 24. Damsgaard M. 7. Schade K. 9. Thiago I.
Substitutes
35. Barnes A. 18. Ekdal H. 16. Florentino 9. Foster L. 3. Hartman Q. 17. Tchaouna L. 8. Ugochukwu L. 2. Walker K. 13. Weiss M. (G)	31. Balcombe E. (G) 48. Bentt L. 22. Collins N. 45. Donovan R. 47. Furo K. 6. Henderson J. 23. Lewis-Potter K. 5. Pinnock E. 49. Shield O.
Coaches
Parker S.	Andrews K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
9', 0 - 1, Damsgaard M. ⚽, Ouattara Da. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Thiago I. ⚽, Damsgaard M. (A),
34', 0 - 3, Schade K. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 3, Kayode M. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
46', Laurent J. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
47', 2 - 3, Anthony J. ⚽, Mejbri H. (A),
60', 3 - 3, Flemming Z. ⚽, Mejbri H. (A),
72', Ouattara Da. ↓, Donovan R. ↑,
72', Schade K. ↓, Lewis-Potter K. ↑,
73', Yarmolyuk Y. ↓, Henderson J. ↑,
75', Ward-Prowse J. ↓, Florentino ↑,
77', Thiago I. 🟨,
84', Mejbri H. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
86', Humphreys B. 🟨,
90+1', Flemming Z. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 4, Damsgaard M. ⚽, Henry R. (A),
90+10', Yarmolyuk Y. 🟨,
90+11', Foster L. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.

Burnley has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Brentford is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Brentford is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Thigh Injury) Broja A. (Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Ankle Injury) Tuanzebe A. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Brentford: Carvalho F. (Knee Injury) Dasilva J. (Knee Injury) Milambo A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brentford: Hickey A. (Injury) Kayode M. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10:4	6	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Burnley - Mansfield Town	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Crystal Palace - Burnley	2:3 ✺
07.02.26	Burnley - West Ham United	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Sunderland - Burnley	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 TLWLL
- Brentford FC
English Premier League
21.02.26	Brentford - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
16.02.26	Macclesfield Town - Brentford	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
12.02.26	Brentford - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Newcastle United - Brentford	2:3 ✺
01.02.26	Aston Villa - Brentford	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
29.11.25	Brentford - Burnley	3:1
16.03.24	Burnley - Brentford	2:1
21.10.23	Brentford - Burnley	3:0
12.03.22	Brentford - Burnley	2:0
30.10.21	Burnley - Brentford	3:1
English League Championship
15.01.16	Brentford - Burnley	1:3
22.08.15	Burnley - Brentford	1:0

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