Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 9

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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India	FanCode, FanCode
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Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
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Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
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Portugal	Sport TV5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
South-africa	SuperSport ESPN
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra, V Sport Xtra
Turkey	Exxen
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Burnley		Preston North End

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.8
	1.76	3.55	4.92	Watch
	1.81	3.55	5.04
	1.86	3.5	4.41	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.75
	1.81	3.56	4.59	Watch
	1.77	3.65	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.61)	3.54 ↓ (4.05)	4.7 ↓ (5.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
52.8%

Draw
26.9%

Preston North End
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

23.4%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

22.8%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burnley's form might have worsened.

Preston North End has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burnley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Preston North End than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.5%	4.5%	0%

Burnley - Preston North End Predictions

Users Predictions: Burnley will win (20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trafford J. (G) 12. Humphreys B. 6. Egan-Riley C. 5. Esteve M. 23. Lucas Pires 24. Cullen J. 8. Brownhill J. (C) 30. Koleosho L. 28. Mejbri H. 11. Anthony J. 17. Foster L.	1. Woodman F. (G) 29. Kesler-Hayden K. 6. Lindsay L. 14. Storey J. 16. Hughes A. 4. Whiteman B. (C) 8. McCann A. 44. Potts B. 10. Frokjaer-Jensen M. 11. Brady R. 9. Riis E.
Substitutes
48. Agyei E. 16. Egan J. 19. Flemming Z. 32. Hladky V. (G) 29. Laurent J. 42. Massengo H. 14. Roberts C. 9. Rodriguez J. 7. Sarmiento J.	33. Best K. 40. Bowler J. 13. Cornell D. (G) 25. Holmes D. 18. Ledson R. 23. Okkels J. 17. Stewart L. 22. Thordarson S. T. 5. Whatmough J.
Coaches
Parker S.	Heckingbottom P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Hughes A. 🟨,
44', Woodman F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Humphreys B. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,
55', Whiteman B. 🟨,
66', Foster L. 🟨,
69', Brownhill J. 🟨,
69', McCann A. 🟨,
71', Egan-Riley C. 🟨,
74', Mejbri H. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
76', Frokjaer-Jensen M. ↓, Holmes D. ↑,
83', Anthony J. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
86', Brady R. ↓, Thordarson S. T. ↑,
86', Cullen J. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
88', Hughes A. ↓, Whatmough J. ↑,
90+5', Kesler-Hayden K. ↓, Ledson R. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 21).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burnley won 3.

Burnley is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Preston is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Preston could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Burnley is a favorite.

There will not play in Burnley: Beyer J. (Thigh Injury) Delcroix H. (Muscle Injury) Ekdal H. (Muscle Injury) Manuel Hedilazio B. (Calf Injury) Ramsey A. (Knee Injury) Redmond N. (Muscle Injury) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Preston: Osmajic M. (Suspended)

Our prediction for today's Burnley to win the game is with odds 1.69.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Burnley won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:8 (average 1.4:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Burnley won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English League Championship
01.10.24	Burnley - Plymouth Argyle	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Oxford United - Burnley	0:0 ✺
21.09.24	Burnley - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	Leeds United - Burnley	0:1 ✺
31.08.24	Burnley - Blackburn Rovers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTWWT
- Preston North End
English League Championship
02.10.24	Preston North End - Watford	3:0 ✺
28.09.24	Millwall - Preston North End	3:1 ✺
22.09.24	Preston North End - Blackburn Rovers	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
17.09.24	Preston North End - Fulham	2:1 penalties ✺
English League Championship
14.09.24	Middlesbrough - Preston North End	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
11.02.23	Burnley - Preston North End	3:0
13.09.22	Preston North End - Burnley	1:1
Club Friendly
01.09.20	Preston North End - Burnley	0:0
23.07.18	Preston North End - Burnley	2:3
25.07.17	Preston North End - Burnley	1:2
English League Championship
22.04.16	Preston North End - Burnley	0:1
05.12.15	Burnley - Preston North End	0:2

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