Match Info

Date: 21 April 2022, Thursday


	Burnley		Southampton

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.75
	2.65	3.4	2.6
	2.63	3.4	2.8
	2.6	3.35	2.75
	2.72	3.4	2.78
	2.6	3.25	2.7
	2.67	3.44	2.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.93)	3.38 ↑ (3.36)	2.74 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
36.5%

Draw
28.4%

Southampton
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

28.2%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.1%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burnley that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Southampton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.6%	46.3%	24.1%

Burnley - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 108 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 32 - 29.6%). S`hampton will win (votes: 26 - 24.1%). It will Tie (votes: 50 - 46.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 36.9% – 55.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 13).

Burnley has the most likely position - 18 (47.39%), has project points - 33, has currently - 25, has a good chance of relegated (59%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

S`hampton has the most likely position - 15 (22.29%), has project points - 45, has currently - 39, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has quality 64, importance 33, match rating 49. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Burnley won 0.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Recently S`hampton have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Burnley won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Burnley won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
17.04.22	West Ham United - Burnley	1:1 ✺
10.04.22	Norwich City - Burnley	2:0 ✺
06.04.22	Burnley - Everton	3:2 ✺
02.04.22	Burnley - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
12.03.22	Brentford - Burnley	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TLWLL
- Southampton FC
English Premier League
16.04.22	Southampton - Arsenal	1:0 ✺
09.04.22	Southampton - Chelsea	0:6 ✺
02.04.22	Leeds United - Southampton	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
20.03.22	Southampton - Manchester City	1:4 ✺
English Premier League
13.03.22	Southampton - Watford	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.10.21	Southampton - Burnley	2:2
04.04.21	Southampton - Burnley	3:2
26.09.20	Burnley - Southampton	0:1
15.02.20	Southampton - Burnley	1:2
10.08.19	Burnley - Southampton	3:0
02.02.19	Burnley - Southampton	1:1
12.08.18	Southampton - Burnley	0:0

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