Match Info

National League - Round 28

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Carlisle United		York City

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.5	2.2
	2.98	3.45	2.2
	2.9	3.48	2.29	Watch
	2.88	3.3	2.25
	2.92	3.38	2.17
	3.1	3.5	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↓ (3.04)	3.44 ↓ (3.53)	2.21 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
31.4%

Draw
26.9%

York City
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

26.3%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

25.8%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

York City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for York City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Carlisle United - York City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - York (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: York City will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): York City will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. York (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breeze G. (G) 22. Williams J. 5. Feeney M. (C) 6. Hayden A. 3. Harper C. 37. Macadam H. 20. Gilliead A. 10. Linney R. 38. Conn-Clarke C. 18. Ellis J. 9. Kelly G.	1. Male H. (G) 29. Johnson Z. 5. Howe C. (C) 3. Kitching M. 14. Brookes B. 8. Hunt A. 21. Boateng H. 15. King J. 12. Grey J. 10. Pearce O. 9. Stones J.
Substitutes
7. Ajiboye D. 29. Armstrong L. 14. Embleton E. 12. Galvin R. 25. Lewis H. (G) 26. Mugabi B. 16. Wearne S.	28. Banks O. 18. Batty D. 2. Fallowfield R. 30. Newby A. 22. Olley G. 31. Sykes-Kenworthy G. (G) 27. Williams M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Stones J. ⚽, Brookes B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
67', Hayden A. ↓, Mugabi B. ↑,
71', Harper C. ↓, Galvin R. ↑,
71', Ellis J. ↓, Armstrong L. ↑,
75', 0 - 2, Hunt A. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Brookes B. ↓, Newby A. ↑,
76', Hunt A. ↓, Batty D. ↑,
85', Howe C. ↓, Fallowfield R. ↑,
85', Stones J. ↓, Banks O. ↑,
85', Kitching M. ↓, Williams M. ↑,
85', Gilliead A. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
90+8', 0 - 3, Newby A. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

York is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlisle won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlisle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Carlisle	13	4	5	4	23:20	3	17

Last Results with these Odds

Carlisle United - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.53%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English National League
17.01.26	Solihull Moors - Carlisle United	3:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
10.01.26	Chatham Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English National League
03.01.26	Carlisle United - Wealdstone	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Carlisle United - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Gateshead - Carlisle United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWWW
- York City
English National League
17.01.26	York City - Southend United	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Sutton United - York City	1:2 ✺
30.12.25	Altrincham - York City	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	York City - Boston United	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	York City - Truro City	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
23.09.25	York City - Carlisle United	5:0
English League Two
23.01.16	Carlisle United - York City	1:1
19.09.15	York City - Carlisle United	2:2
14.03.15	York City - Carlisle United	0:0
28.12.14	Carlisle United - York City	0:3

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