Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio dei Marmi (Carrara)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Carrarese		Catanzaro

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.2	Watch
	2.35	3	3.05	Watch
	2.47	3.09	3.29
	2.36	3.21	3.05	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.9
	2.49	3.06	3.1	Watch
	2.42	3.25	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↓ (2.39)	3.1 ↓ (3.18)	3.08 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carrarese
39.3%

Draw
30.2%

Catanzaro
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.2%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carrarese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

The ML Model estimate for Carrarese aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Carrarese - Catanzaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 13.8% – 61.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 1 - 25%). Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bleve M. (G) 37. Calabrese N. 4. Illanes J. (C) 26. Ruggeri F. 17. Zuelli E. 72. Zanon S. 8. Melegoni F. 70. Hasa L. 73. Rouhi J. 21. Rubino T. 9. Abiuso F.	22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 26. Verrengia B. 27. Favasuli C. 32. Rispoli F. 10. Petriccione J. 77. D'Alessandro M. 14. Liberali M. 19. Nuamah P. 9. Iemmello P. (C)
Substitutes
7. Belloni N. 28. Di Stefano F. 32. Finotto M. 12. Garofani G. (G) 3. Imperiale M. 25. Lordkipanidze D. 6. Oliana F. 77. Parlanti G. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E.	30. Alesi G. 5. Bashi E. 23. Brighenti N. 98. Buglio D. 2. Esteves G. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 8. Pittarello F. 21. Pompetti M. 20. Pontisso S.
Coaches
Calabro A.	Aquilani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Melegoni F. ⚽, Zuelli E. (A),
7', 1 - 1, Illanes J. (Own goal),
20', Petriccione J. 🟨,
39', 1 - 2, Cassandro T. ⚽, Iemmello P. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', D'Alessandro M. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
46', Petriccione J. ↓, Pontisso S. ↑,
46', Rouhi J. ↓, Belloni N. ↑,
50', Liberali M. 🟨,
55', Liberali M. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
56', Nuamah P. ↓, Pittarello F. ↑,
64', 2 - 2, Abiuso F. ⚽, Melegoni F. (A),
69', Rubino T. ↓, Di Stefano F. ↑,
76', 3 - 2, Rispoli F. (Own goal),
79', Verrengia B. ↓, Alesi G. ↑,
83', Abiuso F. 🟨,
83', Abiuso F. ↓, Finotto M. ↑,
83', Melegoni F. ↓, Parlanti G. ↑,
90', Pontisso S. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Rispoli F. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 3, Pittarello F. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 1.

Carrarese is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Catanzaro is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Carrarese: Accornero F. (Inactive) Bouah D. (Inactive) Salamon B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Injury) Oudin R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Carrarese: Schiavi N. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Catanzaro: 0.82% Carrarese: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Catanzaro	6	1	0	5	6:12	-6	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2:6	-4	1

Last Results with these Odds

Carrarese - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.81%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Catanzaro - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.98%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.03.26	Mantova - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Carrarese - Monza	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Modena - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Carrarese - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLLLT
- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
01.03.26	Catanzaro - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	Virtus Entella - Catanzaro	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Catanzaro - Mantova	2:0 ✺
10.02.26	Pescara - Catanzaro	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Catanzaro - Reggiana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
13.09.25	Catanzaro - Carrarese	1:1
12.04.25	Carrarese - Catanzaro	2:2
01.09.24	Catanzaro - Carrarese	3:1
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
14.04.13	Catanzaro - Carrarese	2:3
02.12.12	Carrarese - Catanzaro	2:2
Coppa Italia
05.08.12	Carrarese - Catanzaro	N/A

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