Match Info

Championship - Round 34

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: MKM Stadium (Hull)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	DAZN, Sky Sports+


	Hull City		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.82	Watch
	2.37	3.4	2.95
	2.47	3.35	2.86	Watch
	2.48	3.33	2.87	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.8
	2.47	3.18	2.83	Watch
	2.14	3.35	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.14)	3.28 ↓ (3.35)	2.93 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hull City
39.2%

Draw
28.7%

Derby County
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

28.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

29.5%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hull City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hull City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.2%	25%	45.8%

Hull City - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Hull will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Derby will win (votes: 11 - 45.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 25.9% – 65.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 1 - 20%). Derby (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Derby (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.75 - Hull (2.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Derby (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pandur I. (G) 2. Coyle L. (C) 15. Egan J. 4. Hughes C. 3. Giles R. 20. Hadziahmetovic A. 27. Slater R. 22. Joseph K. 21. Gelhardt J. 7. Millar L. 9. McBurnie O.	31. Vickers J. (G) 2. Murkin D. 3. Forsyth C. 5. Clarke M. 20. Elder C. 18. Ozoh D. 27. Travis L. (C) 25. Brereton Diaz B. 19. Szmodics S. 42. Clark B. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
25. Crooks M. 26. Dowell K. 18. Drameh C. 23. Famewo A. 36. Koumas L. 5. Lundstram J. 58. McCarthy C. 37. McNair P. 12. Phillips D. (G)	54. Allen C. 10. Brewster R. 37. Eames O. 29. Fraulo O. 44. Gordon I. 9. Morris C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 28. Sanderson D. 23. Ward J.
Coaches
Jakirovic S.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
2', Agyemang P. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Elder C. (Own goal),
17', 1 - 1, Forsyth C. ⚽,
39', 2 - 1, McBurnie O. ⚽, Gelhardt J. (A),
42', 2 - 2, Szmodics S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Elder C. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
53', Giles R. ↓, Drameh C. ↑,
60', Coyle L. 🟨,
60', Ward J. 🟨,
75', 3 - 2, Egan J. ⚽, McBurnie O. (A),
79', Ozoh D. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
79', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
81', Millar L. ↓, McNair P. ↑,
82', Gelhardt J. ↓, Koumas L. ↑,
84', 4 - 2, Koumas L. ⚽, Joseph K. (A),
89', McBurnie O. ↓, Dowell K. ↑,
90+5', Joseph K. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hull won 0.

Hull is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Derby has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Hull has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Hull: Ajayi S. (Hamstring Injury) Belloumi M. (Hamstring Injury) Crooks M. (Hamstring Injury) Gyabi D. (Groin Injury) Jacob M. (Knee Injury) Matazo E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Langas S. (Hamstring Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Illness)

There are questionable in Hull: Hirakawa Y. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hull won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:32. (average 0.7:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Hull won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.6:1.4).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hull City
English League Championship
21.02.26	Hull City - Queens Park Rangers	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
13.02.26	Hull City - Chelsea	0:4 ✺
English League Championship
07.02.26	Hull City - Bristol City	2:3 ✺
03.02.26	Hull City - Watford	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Blackburn Rovers - Hull City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTW
- Derby County
English League Championship
21.02.26	Watford - Derby County	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Derby County - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Bristol City - Derby County	0:5 ✺
23.01.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.11.25	Derby County - Hull City	2:1
26.04.25	Hull City - Derby County	0:1
26.10.24	Derby County - Hull City	1:1
08.02.22	Derby County - Hull City	3:1
18.08.21	Hull City - Derby County	0:1
18.01.20	Derby County - Hull City	1:0
26.10.19	Hull City - Derby County	2:0

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