Match Info

Championship - Round 41

Date: 8 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Madley R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Net4+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Derby County		Burnley

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.1	1.9	Watch
	4.6	3.2	1.88
	4.7	3.07	1.95	Watch
	4.75	3.14	1.92	Watch
	4.6	3.1	1.85
	5.08	3.18	1.92	Watch
	4.7	3.07	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↑ (4.28)	3.12 ↓ (3.24)	1.91 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
20%

Draw
30.4%

Burnley
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

29.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

29.4%

48.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	3.7%	88.9%

Derby County - Burnley Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Derby (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Burnley (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Burnley will win (48 of 54 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.51% – 97.27%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Burnley will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Burnley (votes: 18 - 94.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 12. Phillips N. 25. Clarke M. 2. Wilson K. 16. Thompson L. 28. Armstrong H. 32. Adams E. (C) 3. Forsyth C. 10. Yates J. 18. Harness M.	1. Trafford J. (G) 14. Roberts C. 6. Egan-Riley C. 5. Esteve M. 23. Lucas Pires 22. Edwards M. 24. Cullen J. 29. Laurent J. 11. Anthony J. 8. Brownhill J. (C) 19. Flemming Z.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 17. Goudmijn K. 29. Hendrick J. 19. Jackson K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 33. Pieters E. 21. Rooney J. 31. Vickers J. (G) 48. Wheeldon L.	35. Barnes A. 17. Foster L. 32. Hladky V. (G) 30. Koleosho L. 28. Mejbri H. 15. Redmond N. 7. Sarmiento J. 2. Sonne O. 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Langas S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Laurent J. ↓, Foster L. ↑,
69', Harness M. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
74', Foster L. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
78', Langas S. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
84', Edwards M. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
87', Thompson L. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
90+3', Adams E. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 0.

Derby is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Burnley is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Burnley could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Burnley is a favorite.

There will not play in Derby: Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Roofe K. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Agyei E. (Muscle Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Humphreys B. (Hip Injury) Ramsey A. (Knee Injury) Shelvey J. (Leg Injury) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Jackson K. (Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury) Ward J. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Derby won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 2:13 (average 0.3:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
05.04.25	Swansea City - Derby County	1:0 ✺
02.04.25	Derby County - Preston North End	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Plymouth Argyle - Derby County	2:3 ✺
11.03.25	Derby County - Coventry City	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LWWWW
- Burnley FC
English League Championship
05.04.25	Coventry City - Burnley	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Burnley - Bristol City	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Swansea City - Burnley	0:2 ✺
11.03.25	Burnley - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Burnley - Luton Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
10.12.24	Burnley - Derby County	0:0
25.01.16	Burnley - Derby County	4:1
21.09.15	Derby County - Burnley	0:0
01.03.14	Burnley - Derby County	2:0
31.08.13	Derby County - Burnley	0:3
26.12.12	Burnley - Derby County	2:0
22.09.12	Derby County - Burnley	1:2

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