Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 22

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: M-Scores Stadion (Dordrecht)

Referee: Ruperti C. (Ned)


	Dordrecht		Helmond Sport

	1	X	2
	1.66	4.1	4.2	Watch
	2	3.6	3.1
	1.68	3.95	4.45
	1.75	4.16	4.5
	1.67	4.2	4.41	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.2
	1.67	3.95	4.52	Watch
	1.61	4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.13)	3.97 ↑ (3.57)	4.27 ↑ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dordrecht
54.5%

Draw
23.6%

Helmond Sport
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

25.8%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

25%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dordrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dordrecht's performance.

Helmond Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Helmond Sport might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dordrecht than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dordrecht that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Helmond Sport could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	11.8%	17.6%

Dordrecht - Helmond Sport Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Dordrecht will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Helmond Sport will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dordrecht: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Dordrecht (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Helmond Sport (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Dordrecht (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Dordrecht (votes: 9 - 75%). Helmond Sport (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
63. Biai C. (G) 3. Valk S. (C) 15. M'Bemba Y. 25. Plug J. 20. Yoon D. 16. Bae S. 8. Sunderland L. 22. Darelas A. 9. Carrillo S. 59. de Bie J. 28. Codutti L.	1. Bergsen M. (G) 3. Van Den Eynden F. (C) 4. Koglin B. 28. Vos D. 20. Dekkers S. 47. Geerts D. 22. Dizdarevic A. 5. Poll T. 16. Lukowicz M. 29. Zimuangana O. 34. Essakkati T.
Substitutes
11. Afaker M. 13. Artic T. (G) 1. Coremans T. (G) 24. Huitzing G. 14. Pynadath J. 29. Rossi N. 2. van Aken J. 18. van Asten R. 10. van der Sluijs J. 7. Venema N. 21. Vetkal M.	23. Aben K. (G) 27. Absalem A. 9. Bajrami L. 41. Geerts J. 19. Ingason H. 44. Janssen J. 36. Leipold A. 6. Ludwig M. 26. Makanza N. 2. Ogenia J. 48. van Bree R. 21. Wentges H. (G)
Coaches
Kuyt D.	Seegers J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Koglin B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Codutti L. ↓, Rossi N. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Darelas A. ⚽,
59', Zimuangana O. ↓, Bajrami L. ↑,
59', Lukowicz M. ↓, Leipold A. ↑,
60', Bae S. ↓, Vetkal M. ↑,
61', de Bie J. ↓, Venema N. ↑,
68', Vos D. 🟨,
69', Dekkers S. ↓, Ogenia J. ↑,
69', Geerts D. ↓, Ludwig M. ↑,
71', Bergsen M. 🟨,
72', 2 - 0, M'Bemba Y. (Penalty Awarded),
73', Yoon D. ↓, van Aken J. ↑,
84', Carrillo S. ↓, van Asten R. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Venema N. ⚽, Valk S. (A),
86', Essakkati T. ↓, Makanza N. ↑,

Preview

Postponed due to bad weather.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dordrecht won 4.

Dordrecht is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Helmond Sport's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dordrecht will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Dordrecht: Baltussen T. (Knee Injury) Malasomma M. (Knee Injury) Valk S. (Knee Injury) Van de Giessen L. (Ankle Injury) de Bie J. (Injury) van Vianen D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dordrecht won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dordrecht won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Dordrecht: 0.65%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Helmond	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8

Last Results with these Odds

Dordrecht - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.28%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dordrecht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
30.01.26	Vitesse - Dordrecht	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Dordrecht - Den Bosch	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Waalwijk - Dordrecht	1:1 ✺
19.12.25	VVV-Venlo - Dordrecht	3:1 ✺
12.12.25	Dordrecht - FC Eindhoven	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTLL
- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
31.01.26	Helmond Sport - De Graafschap	0:0 ✺
26.01.26	Jong PSV - Helmond Sport	4:0 ✺
16.01.26	Helmond Sport - Vitesse	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Helmond Sport - Willem II	2:2 ✺
12.12.25	Emmen - Helmond Sport	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
24.10.25	Helmond Sport - Dordrecht	1:2
08.02.25	Helmond Sport - Dordrecht	0:1
10.11.24	Dordrecht - Helmond Sport	4:0
12.01.24	Dordrecht - Helmond Sport	2:0
23.10.23	Helmond Sport - Dordrecht	1:1
Club Friendly
07.07.23	Dordrecht - Helmond Sport	3:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
26.03.23	Dordrecht - Helmond Sport	0:0

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