Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie - Round 28

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion (Rotterdam)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1


	Excelsior		Roda

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.9	4.1
				Watch
	1.72	4.26	4.42
				Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.33
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.63)	3.99 ↓ (4.22)	4.28 ↓ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
54.8%

Draw
23.4%

Roda
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.3%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

21.4%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Roda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Excelsior, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roda than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Excelsior - Roda Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Excelsior will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Roda will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raatsie C. (G) 2. Bronkhorst I. 4. Warmerdam D. 3. Pierie K. 12. Zagre A. 24. Eijgenraam J. 8. Tielemans M. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 10. Duijvestijn L. (C) 7. Fini S. 9. Omorowa R.	52. El Maach I. (G) 22. Kruiver J. 13. Roseler N. (C) 4. Koglin B. 18. Kother T. 34. Veendorp K. 17. Dzepar O. 97. Baeten T. 14. Breij M. 72. Vancsa Z. 9. Cukur T.
Substitutes
33. Bergraaf J. 11. Booth Z. 31. Cairo G. 32. de Moes S. 21. Donkor J. 38. Kuiper P. (G) 17. Martens N. 28. Middendorp S. 14. Rosario R. 29. van Duinen M.	27. Bangura S. 15. Beerten L. 26. El Meliani R. 11. Griffith I. 20. Leijten R. 7. Razak K. 10. Schwirten J. 77. Sejdiu P. 6. Spieringhs W. 23. Steins J. (G) 33. Timmermans J. 30. Van Hemelryck C. (G)
Coaches
den Uil R.	Sibum B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Breij M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Vancsa Z. ↓, Leijten R. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Pierie K. ⚽, Duijvestijn L. (A),
60', Veendorp K. ↓, Beerten L. ↑,
67', Omorowa R. ↓, Bergraaf J. ↑,
67', Koglin B. 🟨,
73', Sanches Fernandes D. ↓, Donkor J. ↑,
78', Kother T. 🟨,
83', Breij M. ↓, Schwirten J. ↑,
90', Duijvestijn L. 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Excelsior won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Excelsior could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Excelsior is a favorite.

There will not play in Excelsior: Blomme X. (Injury)

There will not play in Roda: Jansen K. (Knee Injury) Schmidt L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Hartjes L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Roda: Bucker K. (Knee Injury) Kother T. (Injury) Treichel J. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Excelsior won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 25:28 (average 1.5:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Excelsior won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:12 (average 1.1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.02.25	Telstar - Excelsior	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Excelsior - Helmond Sport	1:1 ✺
10.02.25	Jong Ajax - Excelsior	3:2 ✺
01.02.25	Excelsior - Vitesse	1:3 ✺
26.01.25	Excelsior - ADO Den Haag	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLLW
- Roda JC
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.02.25	Roda - Den Bosch	0:0 ✺
14.02.25	Dordrecht - Roda	2:1 ✺
07.02.25	Roda - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:3 ✺
01.02.25	MVV Maastricht - Roda	3:2 ✺
24.01.25	Roda - Jong Utrecht	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
04.10.24	Roda - Excelsior	3:0
Dutch Eredivisie
14.05.22	Roda - Excelsior	0:2 ET
10.05.22	Excelsior - Roda	2:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
25.02.22	Excelsior - Roda	2:0
13.08.21	Roda - Excelsior	1:2
15.02.21	Excelsior - Roda	1:3
28.11.20	Roda - Excelsior	3:1

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