Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 28 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Voith-Arena (Heidenheim)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Heidenheim		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.33	1.5
	5	4.33	1.51
	5.5	4.5	1.52	Watch
	5.72	4.59	1.53
	5.52	4.63	1.5	Watch
	6.5	4.75	1.36
	5.8	4.78	1.53
	5.5	4.5	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.66 ↑ (4.7)	4.55 ↑ (3.65)	1.5 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidenheim
16.6%

Draw
20.6%

Chelsea
62.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.5%

25.1%

55.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19%

24.4%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chelsea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chelsea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.7%	8.1%	89.2%

Heidenheim - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (33 of 37 users predict this - 89.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.18% – 99.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller K. (G) 23. Traore O. H. 6. Mainka P. (C) 4. Siersleben T. 30. Theuerkauf N. 39. Dorsch N. 33. Maloney L. 8. Scienza L. 10. Wanner P. 17. Honsak M. 29. Kaufmann M.	12. Jorgensen F. (G) 2. Disasi A. (C) 5. Badiashile B. 4. Adarabioyo T. 40. Veiga R. 19. Sancho J. 31. Casadei C. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 10. Mudryk M. 18. Nkunku C. 38. Guiu M.
Substitutes
21. Beck A. 14. Breunig M. 2. Busch M. 31. Conteh S. 22. Eicher V. (G) 40. Feller F. (G) 19. Fohrenbach J. 5. Gimber B. 36. Janes L. 20. Kerber L. 25. Negele C. 3. Schoppner J.	47. Bergstrom L. (G) 17. Chukwuemeka C. 6. Colwill L. 33. Dyer K. 32. George T. 14. Joao Felix 11. Madueke N. 76. Mheuka S. 51. Rak-Sakyi S. 1. Sanchez R. (G)
Coaches
Schmidt F.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Badiashile B. 🟨,
42', Traore O. H. 🟨,
45', Casadei C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
51', 0 - 1, Nkunku C. ⚽, Sancho J. (A),
57', Dorsch N. ↓, Schoppner J. ↑,
57', Honsak M. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,
62', Guiu M. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
68', Traore O. H. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
68', Maloney L. ↓, Breunig M. ↑,
76', Nkunku C. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
78', Kaufmann M. ↓, Gimber B. ↑,
82', Jorgensen F. 🟨,
84', Veiga R. 🟨,
85', Schoppner J. 🟨,
86', 0 - 2, Mudryk M. ⚽, Sancho J. (A),
90+2', Sancho J. ↓, George T. ↑,
90+2', Dewsbury-Hall K. ↓, Rak-Sakyi S. ↑,
90+7', Casadei C. 🟨,

Preview

Heidenheim is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Chelsea is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Heidenheim have a series of guest games.

In this match Chelsea is a favorite.

There will not play in Heidenheim: Busch M. (Groin Injury) Janes L. (Knee Injury) Niehues J. (Knee Injury) Pieringer M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Fofana W. (Inactive) James R. (Thigh Injury) Kellyman O. (Muscle Injury) Lavia R. (Inactive) Palmer C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Heidenheim: Keller T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Gusto M. (Illness) Neto P. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
23.11.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Heidenheim	5:2 ✺
10.11.24	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Hearts - Heidenheim	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
02.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Hertha Berlin - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL
- Chelsea
English Premier League
23.11.24	Leicester City - Chelsea	1:2 ✺
10.11.24	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Chelsea - Noah Yerevan	8:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.11.24	Manchester United - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
30.10.24	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTWTL

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