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Lecce vs Parma Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, January 11, 2026)

Match Info

Serie A - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, Viaplay 2 Urheilu
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, CBS Sports Network, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Lecce		Parma

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.82	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.8	2.89	2.9	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.8
	2.71	3	3.05
	2.8	2.85	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)	2.89 ↓ (2.96)	2.89 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
34.3%

Draw
32.9%

Parma
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

31.9%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

32%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	67.5%	17.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 6 - 15%). Parma will win (votes: 7 - 17.5%). It will Tie (votes: 27 - 67.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 53% – 82%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 10 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Parma (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 4. Gaspar K. 44. Tiago Gabriel 3. Ndaba C. 77. Kaba M. 20. Ramadani Y. 93. Maleh Y. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Stulic N. 19. Banda L.	40. Corvi E. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 39. Circati A. 5. Valenti L. 14. Valeri E. 10. Bernabe A. 16. Keita M. 22. Sorensen O. 21. Oristanio G. 9. Pellegrino M. 17. Ondrejka J.
Substitutes
95. Bleve D. (G) 29. Coulibaly L. 25. Gallo A. 16. Gandelman O. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 21. Kouassi C. 36. Marchwinski F. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 23. Sottil R.	11. Almqvist P. 7. Benedyczak A. 27. Britschgi S. 25. Cremaschi B. 32. Cutrone P. 30. Djuric M. 8. Estevez N. 13. Guaita V. (G) 24. Ordonez C. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 37. Troilo M.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Cuesta C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Stulic N. ⚽, Banda L. (A),
23', Pierotti S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
56', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
57', Banda L. 🟥,
62', Kaba M. 🟨,
63', Keita M. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Tiago Gabriel (Own goal),
65', Stulic N. ↓, Gallo A. ↑,
69', Del Prato E. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Bernabe A. (A),
77', Ndaba C. ↓, Sottil R. ↑,
78', Ramadani Y. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
78', Maleh Y. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
80', Ondrejka J. ↓, Benedyczak A. ↑,
80', Bernabe A. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
84', Oristanio G. ↓, Britschgi S. ↑,
90+3', Gaspar K. 🟥,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2.

Lecce is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Parma has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Injury) Coulibaly L. (International duty)

There will not play in Parma: Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ndiaye A. (Groin Injury) Suzuki Z. (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Pierret B. (Muscle Injury) Tete Morente (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Parma: Benedyczak A. (Illness)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 2.2:2).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	28:46	-18	45
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	28:50	-22	38

Last Results with these Odds

Parma - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 36.47%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
06.01.26	Lecce - Roma	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Juventus - Lecce	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Lecce - Como	0:3 ✺
12.12.25	Lecce - Pisa	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cremonese - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTLWL
- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Parma - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Sassuolo - Parma	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Parma - Lazio	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Pisa - Parma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
04.10.25	Parma - Lecce	0:1
31.01.25	Parma - Lecce	1:3
21.09.24	Lecce - Parma	2:2
Coppa Italia
01.11.23	Lecce - Parma	2:4
Club Friendly
29.07.22	Parma - Lecce	1:0
Italian Serie B
19.03.22	Parma - Lecce	0:0
07.11.21	Lecce - Parma	4:0

Lecce - Parma: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide