Match Info

Serie A - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360, ZAP
Albania	12:30	Tring Sport 1
Angola	12:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	08:30	Disney+
Armenia	15:30	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	12:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	15:30	Setanta Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	12:30	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	08:30	Disney+
Bulgaria	13:30	Max Sport 3
Canada	06:30	DAZN Canada
Chile	08:30	Disney+
China	19:30	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	06:30	Disney+
Croatia	12:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	13:30	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	12:30	Sport 1
Denmark	12:30	TV2 Play
Europe	—	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	13:30	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, Viaplay 2 Urheilu
France	12:30	DAZN France
Georgia	15:30	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	12:30	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	13:30	COSMOTE Sport 1
Hong Kong	19:30	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live
Hungary	12:30	Match 4
Indonesia	18:30	Vidio
Israel	13:30	ONE Sport 2
Italy	12:30	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	20:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	12:30	Arena Premium 1
Kuwait	14:30	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	17:30	Setanta Sports 1
Malta	12:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	05:30	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	13:30	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	12:30	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	00:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte
Norway	12:30	VG+
Peru	06:30	Disney+
Poland	12:30	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	11:30	Sport TV3
Romania	13:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	14:30	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	14:30	STC TV
Serbia	12:30	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	12:30	Sport 1
Slovenia	12:30	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	13:30	SuperSport Football
South Korea	20:30	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	12:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	12:30	TV4 Play
Switzerland	12:30	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	18:30	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	12:30	Diwan Sport
Turkey	14:30	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	13:30	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Sport
United Kingdom	11:30	DAZN
Uruguay	08:30	Disney+
Usa	06:30	CBS Sports Golazo, CBS Sports Network, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	16:30	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	07:30	Disney+
Vietnam	18:30	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Lecce		Parma

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.9	2.8	Watch
	2.82	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.8	2.89	2.9	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.8
	2.71	3	3.05
	2.8	2.85	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.99)	2.89 ↓ (2.96)	2.89 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
34.3%

Draw
32.9%

Parma
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.6%

31.9%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

32%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	67.5%	17.5%

Lecce - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 6 - 15%). Parma will win (votes: 7 - 17.5%). It will Tie (votes: 27 - 67.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 53% – 82%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 10 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Parma (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 4. Gaspar K. 44. Tiago Gabriel 3. Ndaba C. 77. Kaba M. 20. Ramadani Y. 93. Maleh Y. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Stulic N. 19. Banda L.	40. Corvi E. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 39. Circati A. 5. Valenti L. 14. Valeri E. 10. Bernabe A. 16. Keita M. 22. Sorensen O. 21. Oristanio G. 9. Pellegrino M. 17. Ondrejka J.
Substitutes
95. Bleve D. (G) 29. Coulibaly L. 25. Gallo A. 16. Gandelman O. 28. Gorter O. 14. Helgason T. J. 21. Kouassi C. 36. Marchwinski F. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 23. Sottil R.	11. Almqvist P. 7. Benedyczak A. 27. Britschgi S. 25. Cremaschi B. 32. Cutrone P. 30. Djuric M. 8. Estevez N. 13. Guaita V. (G) 24. Ordonez C. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 37. Troilo M.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Cuesta C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Stulic N. ⚽, Banda L. (A),
23', Pierotti S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
56', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
57', Banda L. 🟥,
62', Kaba M. 🟨,
63', Keita M. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Tiago Gabriel (Own goal),
65', Stulic N. ↓, Gallo A. ↑,
69', Del Prato E. 🟨,
72', 1 - 2, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Bernabe A. (A),
77', Ndaba C. ↓, Sottil R. ↑,
78', Ramadani Y. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
78', Maleh Y. ↓, Gandelman O. ↑,
80', Ondrejka J. ↓, Benedyczak A. ↑,
80', Bernabe A. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
84', Oristanio G. ↓, Britschgi S. ↑,
90+3', Gaspar K. 🟥,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 16 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2.

Lecce is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Parma has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Injury) Coulibaly L. (International duty)

There will not play in Parma: Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ndiaye A. (Groin Injury) Suzuki Z. (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Pierret B. (Muscle Injury) Tete Morente (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Parma: Benedyczak A. (Illness)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:19. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 2.2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Lecce	9	3	0	6	10:19	-9	9
19	Parma	9	1	2	6	5:15	-10	5

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Parma: 0.04% Lecce: 0.02%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
06.01.26	Lecce - Roma	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Juventus - Lecce	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Lecce - Como	0:3 ✺
12.12.25	Lecce - Pisa	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cremonese - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LTLWL
- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
07.01.26	Parma - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Sassuolo - Parma	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Parma - Lazio	0:1 ✺
08.12.25	Pisa - Parma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
04.10.25	Parma - Lecce	0:1
31.01.25	Parma - Lecce	1:3
21.09.24	Lecce - Parma	2:2
Coppa Italia
01.11.23	Lecce - Parma	2:4
Club Friendly
29.07.22	Parma - Lecce	1:0
Italian Serie B
19.03.22	Parma - Lecce	0:0
07.11.21	Lecce - Parma	4:0

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