Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Burnley		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	3.9	4	1.83
	3.8	3.6	1.93
	4	4	1.85
	4.09	4.09	1.88
	4.05	4.03	1.87	Watch
	3.8	3.8	1.8
	4.07	4.17	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (3.92)	3.96 ↓ (3.98)	1.86 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
24.2%

Draw
24.2%

Bournemouth
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

24.1%

51.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24%

23.6%

52.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.6%	12.9%	78.6%

Burnley - Bournemouth Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Burnley (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bournemouth will win (54 of 67 users predict this - 80.6%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.13% – 90.07%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bournemouth will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 7.7%). Bournemouth (votes: 21 - 80.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 12. Humphreys B. 29. Laurent J. 5. Esteve M. 2. Walker K. (C) 20. Ward-Prowse J. 28. Mejbri H. 3. Hartman Q. 9. Foster L. 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 15. Smith A. (C) 23. Hill J. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 10. Christie R. 8. Scott A. 37. Rayan 22. Kroupi E. J. 16. Tavernier M. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
35. Barnes A. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 16. Florentino 23. Lucas Pires 17. Tchaouna L. 8. Ugochukwu L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.	21. Adli A. 7. Brooks D. 18. Diakite B. 11. Doak B. 20. Jimenez A. 29. Mandas C. (G) 44. Milosavljevic V. 27. Toth A. 26. Unal E.
Coaches
Parker S.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Christie R. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
61', Smith A. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
66', Foster L. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
74', Hartman Q. ↓, Lucas Pires ↑,
74', Esteve M. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,
75', Mejbri H. 🟨,
80', Kroupi E. J. ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
87', Rayan ↓, Unal E. ↑,
88', Flemming Z. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
88', Laurent J. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1.

Burnley has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bournemouth has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Bournemouth is the team to beat.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Broja A. (Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury) Tuanzebe A. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Cook L. (Hamstring Injury) Doak B. (Hamstring Injury) Kluivert J. (Knee Injury) Soler J. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Edwards M. (Knock) Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.7:1.3).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Bournemouth: 0.37%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6:8	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
03.03.26	Everton - Burnley	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Burnley - Brentford	3:4 ✺
21.02.26	Chelsea - Burnley	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Burnley - Mansfield Town	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Crystal Palace - Burnley	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 LLTLW
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
03.03.26	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Bournemouth - Sunderland	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	West Ham United - Bournemouth	0:0 ✺
10.02.26	Everton - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
20.12.25	Bournemouth - Burnley	1:1
03.03.24	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:2
28.10.23	Bournemouth - Burnley	2:1
English FA Cup
07.01.23	Bournemouth - Burnley	2:4
09.02.21	Burnley - Bournemouth	0:2
English Premier League
22.02.20	Burnley - Bournemouth	3:0
21.12.19	Bournemouth - Burnley	0:1

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