Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 27

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Germany	Sky Sport Premier League
Greece	Nova Sports
Malaysia	Astro
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Luton Town		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	4.5	4.33	1.67
	4.33	4.2	1.7
	4.55	4.5	1.7	Watch
	4.5	4.45	1.69
	4.54	4.48	1.7
	4.5	4.2	1.73
	4.52	4.58	1.74	Watch
	4.45	4.35	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.49 ↑ (3.84)	4.39 ↑ (4.03)	1.7 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

Watch this match and English Premier League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: USA Network

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
21.5%

Draw
21.9%

Aston Villa
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

23.6%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

22.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.6%	4.1%	86.3%

Luton Town - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (63 of 73 users predict this - 86.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.41% – 94.19%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 15. Mengi T. 16. Burke R. 29. Bell A. 12. Kabore I. 18. Clark J. 6. Barkley R. 45. Doughty A. 30. Townsend A. 14. Chong T. 9. Morris C. (C)	1. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 17. Lenglet C. 15. Moreno A. 7. McGinn J. (C) 6. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 8. Tielemans Y. 41. Ramsey J. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
8. Berry L. 27. Hashioka D. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 43. Nelson Z. 7. Ogbene C. 44. Piesold A. 1. Shea J. (G) 10. Woodrow C.	16. Chambers C. 19. Diaby M. 12. Digne L. 47. Iroegbunam T. 29. Kesler Hayden K. 25. Olsen R. (G) 27. Rogers M. 14. Torres P. 22. Zaniolo N.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Emery U.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage: )).

Luton has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Aston Villa is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aston Villa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aston Villa is a favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Thigh Injury) Andersen M. (Calf Injury) Brown J. (Knee Injury) Lockyer T. (Heart Problems) Nakamba M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Diego Carlos (Muscle Injury) Duran J. (Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Konsa E. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Bell A. (Knock) Potts D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Torres P. (Leg Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Luton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English FA Cup
27.02.24	Luton Town - Manchester City	2:6 ✺
English Premier League
21.02.24	Liverpool - Luton Town	4:1 ✺
18.02.24	Luton Town - Manchester United	1:2 ✺
10.02.24	Luton Town - Sheffield United	1:3 ✺
03.02.24	Newcastle United - Luton Town	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLLT
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
24.02.24	Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest	4:2 ✺
17.02.24	Fulham - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
11.02.24	Aston Villa - Manchester United	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.02.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
03.02.24	Sheffield United - Aston Villa	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
29.10.23	Aston Villa - Luton Town	3:1
English League Cup
10.08.16	Luton Town - Aston Villa	3:1
Club Friendly
23.07.13	Luton Town - Aston Villa	2:0

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