Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide

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Match Info

  • Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday
  • Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)
  • Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Manchester United Athletic Bilbao
    Manchester United Athletic Bilbao
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.88
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    3.63
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    4.24
    (3.51)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

    • The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Manchester United
    51%
    Draw
    26.4%
    Athletic Bilbao
    22.6%

    Initial Probability

    (when we started the analysis)
    46.2% 26.4% 27.4%

    Our Initial ML Estimation

    47.1% 26.9% 26.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)
  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.3%)
  • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    40.4% 18.1% 41.5%
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    Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 91 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 18.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 30.6%50.8%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 15 - 38.5%). Athletic (votes: 19 - 48.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 12.8%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -1 - Athletic (6.85) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
    • BTS - yes (votes: 13 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
    • DNB - Athletic (3.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Man Utd (1.22) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 81 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 17 - 21%). Athletic (votes: 59 - 72.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 6.2%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
    24. CameroonOnana A. (G)
      2. SwedenLindelof V.
      5. EnglandMaguire H.
    15. FranceYoro L.
      3. MoroccoMazraoui N.
    18. BrazilCasemiro
    25. UruguayUgarte M.
    13. DenmarkDorgu P.
      8. PortugalFernandes B. (C)
      9. DenmarkHojlund R.
    17. ArgentinaGarnacho A.
    13. SpainAgirrezabala J. (G)
      2. SpainGorosabel A.
      5. SpainAlvarez Y. (C)
    14. SpainNunez U.
    17. SpainBerchiche Y.
    16. SpainRuiz de Galarreta I.
    23. SpainJauregizar M.
    11. SpainDjalo A.
    20. SpainGomez U.
      7. SpainBerenguer A.
    21. SpainSannadi M.
    Substitutes
    41. EnglandAmass H.
      1. TurkeyBayindir A. (G)
    16. IvoryDiallo A.
    14. DenmarkEriksen C.
    55. EnglandFredricson T.
    22. EnglandHeaton T. (G)
    80. EnglandKamason J.
    37. EnglandMainoo K.
    85. EnglandMantato B.
      7. EnglandMount M.
    23. EnglandShaw L.
    32. SpainBoiro A.
    28. SpainCanales P.
    18. Spainde Marcos O.
    12. SpainGuruzeta G.
    15. SpainLekue I.
    33. SpainOlabarrieta A.
      4. SpainParedes A.
    24. SpainPrados Diaz B.
    35. SpainRego A.
      1. SpainSimon U. (G)
    39. SpainVarela I.
      6. SpainVesga M.
    Coaches
         PortugalAmorim R.
         SpainValverde E.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 1)
    • 25', Mazraoui N. 🟨,
    • 31', 0 - 1, Jauregizar M. ,
    • 39', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
    • 2nd Half (4 - 0)
    • 59', Casemiro 🟨,
    • 61', Ruiz de Galarreta I. , Prados Diaz B. ,
    • 62', Gorosabel A. , de Marcos O. ,
    • 62', Djalo A. , Olabarrieta A. ,
    • 62', Mazraoui N. , Shaw L. ,
    • 62', Ugarte M. , Mount M. ,
    • 62', Garnacho A. , Diallo A. ,
    • 67', Gomez U. , Guruzeta G. ,
    • 72', 1 - 1, Mount M. , Yoro L. (A),
    • 73', Prados Diaz B. , Vesga M. ,
    • 78', Nunez U. 🟨,
    • 78', Berenguer A. 🟨,
    • 80', 2 - 1, Casemiro , Fernandes B. (A),
    • 81', Lindelof V. , Amass H. ,
    • 81', Casemiro , Mainoo K. ,
    • 85', 3 - 1, Hojlund R. , Diallo A. (A),
    • 89', Sannadi M. 🟨,
    • 90+1', Dorgu P. 🟨,
    • 90+1', 4 - 1, Mount M. ,

    Preview

  • 1st leg result: 3-0. 2nd leg.
  • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
  • Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.
  • There will not play in Man Utd: Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)
  • There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card) Williams I. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)
  • There are questionable in Man Utd: de Ligt M. (Knee Injury)
  • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).
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    Form
    - easy match; - difficult match;
    - Manchester United
    English Premier League
    04.05.25 Brentford - Manchester United 4:3
    UEFA Europa League
    01.05.25 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3
    English Premier League
    27.04.25 Bournemouth - Manchester United 1:1
    20.04.25 Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers 0:1
    UEFA Europa League
    17.04.25 Manchester United - Lyon 5:4 ET
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14
    LWTLW
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    04.05.25 Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao 0:0
    UEFA Europa League
    01.05.25 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3
    Spanish LaLiga
    23.04.25 Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas 1:0
    20.04.25 Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0
    UEFA Europa League
    17.04.25 Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers 2:0
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3
    TLWLW
    Latest Head to Head
    UEFA Europa League
    01.05.25 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 0:3
    Club Friendly
    06.08.23 Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao 1:1
    UEFA Europa League
    15.03.12 Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United 2:1
    Upcoming Matches
    - easy match; - difficult match;
    - Manchester United
    English Premier League
    13.09.26 Manchester United - Manchester City
    UEFA Champions League
    10.09.26 Manchester United - Sabah
    - Athletic Bilbao
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.09.26 Athletic Bilbao - Elche