Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Meraj Sport
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	21:00	SuperSport 1
Argentina	16:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	RTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	23:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	Canvas, Play Sports 1, RTBF Tipik, VRT Canvas
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action, Voyo
Chile	15:00	Disney+
China	03:00	iQIYI
Colombia	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	22:00	RIK 1
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 5
Denmark	21:00	Disney+
Finland	22:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	21:00	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	21:00	RTL, RTL+
Greece	22:00	ANT 1+, COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	21:00	M4 Sport
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	00:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Iran	22:30	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	20:00	Premier Sports 1 ROI
Israel	22:00	Sport 2
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	04:00	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport
Kenya	22:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	RTK 1
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:00	Claro Sports, Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	21:00	Canal+, Sporza, Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	07:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	20:00	SuperSport LaLiga
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Papua New Guinea	05:00	TVWan Sports
Peru	14:00	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1, Prima TV
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	21:00	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	21:00	Sport TV1
South Africa	21:00	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:00	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Disney+
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2, RTL, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	02:00	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	22:00	Tabii, TRT 1, TRT Spor
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	16:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, Sport 24 At Sea, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Uzbekistan	00:00	Zor TV
Venezuela	15:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:00	ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
International	19:00	VIX App


	Manchester United		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4.33
	2	3.4	3.6
	1.85	3.75	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.71	4.71
	1.87	3.61	4.49	Watch
	2	3.3	3.8
	1.83	3.8	4.56
	1.88	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.08)	3.63 ↓ (3.64)	4.24 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester United
51%

Draw
26.4%

Athletic Bilbao
22.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.2%

26.4%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.4%	18.1%	41.5%

Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 91 users predict this event. Man Utd will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 40.7%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 18.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 30.6% – 50.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 15 - 38.5%). Athletic (votes: 19 - 48.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 12.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Athletic (6.85) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 13 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

DNB - Athletic (3.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Man Utd (1.22) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 47 Selected Experts predict this event. Man Utd (votes: 16 - 34%). Athletic (votes: 26 - 55.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 10.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Onana A. (G) 2. Lindelof V. 5. Maguire H. 15. Yoro L. 3. Mazraoui N. 18. Casemiro 25. Ugarte M. 13. Dorgu P. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 9. Hojlund R. 17. Garnacho A.	13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 5. Alvarez Y. (C) 14. Nunez U. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 23. Jauregizar M. 11. Djalo A. 20. Gomez U. 7. Berenguer A. 21. Sannadi M.
Substitutes
41. Amass H. 1. Bayindir A. (G) 16. Diallo A. 14. Eriksen C. 55. Fredricson T. 22. Heaton T. (G) 80. Kamason J. 37. Mainoo K. 85. Mantato B. 7. Mount M. 23. Shaw L.	32. Boiro A. 28. Canales P. 18. de Marcos O. 12. Guruzeta G. 15. Lekue I. 33. Olabarrieta A. 4. Paredes A. 24. Prados Diaz B. 35. Rego A. 1. Simon U. (G) 39. Varela I. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Mazraoui N. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Jauregizar M. ⚽,
39', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
59', Casemiro 🟨,
61', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Prados Diaz B. ↑,
62', Gorosabel A. ↓, de Marcos O. ↑,
62', Djalo A. ↓, Olabarrieta A. ↑,
62', Mazraoui N. ↓, Shaw L. ↑,
62', Ugarte M. ↓, Mount M. ↑,
62', Garnacho A. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
67', Gomez U. ↓, Guruzeta G. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Mount M. ⚽, Yoro L. (A),
73', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
78', Nunez U. 🟨,
78', Berenguer A. 🟨,
80', 2 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
81', Lindelof V. ↓, Amass H. ↑,
81', Casemiro ↓, Mainoo K. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Hojlund R. ⚽, Diallo A. (A),
89', Sannadi M. 🟨,
90+1', Dorgu P. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 1, Mount M. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 3-0. 2nd leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Man Utd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Man Utd might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Man Utd: Dalot D. (Calf Injury) Heaven A. (Ankle Injury) Martinez Li. (Knee Injury) Obi C. (Inactive) Zirkzee J. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Sancet O. (Muscle Injury) Vivian D. (Red Card) Williams I. (Muscle Injury) Williams N. (Pelvis Injury)

There are questionable in Man Utd: de Ligt M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Man Utd won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Man Utd won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English Premier League
04.05.25	Brentford - Manchester United	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.05.25	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
27.04.25	Bournemouth - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Manchester United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Manchester United - Lyon	5:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWTLW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
04.05.25	Real Sociedad - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.05.25	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Las Palmas	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.04.25	Athletic Bilbao - Glasgow Rangers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
01.05.25	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	0:3
Club Friendly
06.08.23	Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
UEFA Europa League
15.03.12	Athletic Bilbao - Manchester United	2:1

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