Match Info

League One - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: One Call Stadium (Mansfield)

Referee: Byrne A. (Eng)


	Mansfield Town		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	3.1
	2.22	3.35	3.05
	2.25	3.4	3.06	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3
	2.23	3.42	3.07	Watch
	2.28	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (2.1)	3.39 ↓ (3.61)	3.05 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mansfield Town
41.9%

Draw
27.5%

Port Vale
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

25.9%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.8%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Mansfield Town - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Mansfield will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Port Vale will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mansfield: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Mansfield (3.48) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mansfield (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Port Vale (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roberts L. (G) 23. Oshilaja A. 5. Sweeney R. (C) 6. Cargill B. 7. Akins L. 25. Reed L. 8. Lewis A. 3. McLaughlin S. 22. Moriah-Welsh N. 11. Evans W. 18. Oates R.	13. Amos B. (G) 2. Clark M. 25. Humphreys C. 4. Heneghan B. 3. Headley J. 7. Byers G. (C) 33. Hall G. 18. Croasdale R. 10. Brown D. 26. Shipley J. 44. Cole D.
Substitutes
19. Adeboyejo V. 27. Bolton L. 14. Dwyer D. 24. Hendry R. 4. Hewitt E. 44. Irow O. 13. Russell J.	46. Gauci J. (G) 15. Gordon L. 24. Kyle John 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 14. Ojo F. 9. Stockley J. 19. Waine B.
Coaches
Clough N.	Brady J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Byers G. ↓, Ojo F. ↑,
41', Cargill B. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Cargill B. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
46', Moriah-Welsh N. ↓, Irow O. ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Irow O. ⚽,
59', 2 - 0, Evans W. ⚽,
63', Croasdale R. ↓, Waine B. ↑,
63', Brown D. ↓, Stockley J. ↑,
63', Clark M. ↓, Lawrence-Gabriel J. ↑,
67', 3 - 0, Irow O. ⚽, McLaughlin S. (A),
70', Sweeney R. 🟨,
76', Evans W. ↓, Adeboyejo V. ↑,
76', Oates R. ↓, Bolton L. ↑,
86', Reed L. ↓, Hendry R. ↑,
87', Headley J. ↓, Gordon L. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mansfield won 0.

Mansfield is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Port Vale's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mansfield may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mansfield could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Mansfield: Hendry R. (Inactive) Knoyle K. (Inactive) Maris G. (Inactive) Roberts T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Port Vale: Garrity B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mansfield: Bowery J. (Inactive) Gardner J. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Mansfield won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 24:20. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mansfield won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).

Outrights of English League One for now

Mansfield: 1.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Mansfield	8	3	2	3	12:14	-2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Port Vale - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.65%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mansfield Town
English FA Cup
11.01.26	Sheffield United - Mansfield Town	3:4 ✺
English League One
01.01.26	Mansfield Town - Bradford City	3:0 ✺
29.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Mansfield Town	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Barnsley - Mansfield Town	2:3 ✺
20.12.25	Mansfield Town - Stockport County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.1 WWWWL
- Port Vale
English EFL Trophy
13.01.26	Bolton Wanderers - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
English League One
01.01.26	Port Vale - Blackpool	5:1 ✺
29.12.25	Bradford City - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Huddersfield Town - Port Vale	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
20.09.25	Port Vale - Mansfield Town	2:1
English League Cup
31.10.23	Mansfield Town - Port Vale	0:1
English League Two
28.05.22	Mansfield Town - Port Vale	0:3
15.03.22	Port Vale - Mansfield Town	3:1
19.10.21	Mansfield Town - Port Vale	1:1
08.05.21	Port Vale - Mansfield Town	0:3
02.01.21	Mansfield Town - Port Vale	4:0

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