Match Info

ENGLAND: Championship - Round 30

Date: 3 February 2025, Monday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Middlesbrough		Sunderland

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.75
	2.42	3.45	2.86	Watch
	2.49	3.37	2.99
	2.47	3.4	2.85	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.8
	2.47	3.35	2.84	Watch
	2.42	3.45	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.28)	3.38 ↑ (3.29)	2.84 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
38.5%

Draw
28.1%

Sunderland
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

28.7%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

29.4%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Sunderland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sunderland than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.4%	57.9%	23.7%

Middlesbrough - Sunderland Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 7 - 18.4%). Sunderland will win (votes: 9 - 23.7%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42.2% – 73.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Travers M. (G) 12. Ayling L. (C) 25. Edmundson G. 3. van den Berg R. 28. Giles R. 18. Morris A. 7. Hackney H. 11. Whittaker M. 20. Azaz F. 10. Burgzorg D. 21. Forss M.	1. Patterson A. (G) 32. Hume T. 26. Mepham C. 13. O'Nien L. 3. Cirkin D. 11. Rigg C. 4. Neil D. (C) 7. Bellingham J. 10. Roberts P. 18. Isidor W. 28. Le Fee E.
Substitutes
4. Barlaser D. 22. Conway T. 39. Finch S. 6. Fry D. 23. Glover T. (G) 29. Iling Junior S. 49. McCabe L. 30. Neto Borges 36. Woolston L.	20. Abdul Samed S. 30. Aleksic M. 5. Ballard D. 33. Hjelde L. F. 50. Jones H. 12. Mayenda E. 21. Moore S. (G) 36. Poveda I. 47. Samuel-Ogunsuyi T.
Coaches
Carrick M.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Burgzorg D. ⚽, Hackney H. (A),
21', Morris A. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Neil D. ⚽,
45', O'Nien L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, Isidor W. ⚽, Le Fee E. (A),
59', 2 - 2, Hackney H. ⚽, Morris A. (A),
60', Azaz F. ↓, Iling Junior S. ↑,
64', Bellingham J. 🟨,
69', Forss M. ↓, Conway T. ↑,
72', Rigg C. ↓, Abdul Samed S. ↑,
78', Burgzorg D. 🟨,
81', Isidor W. ↓, Mayenda E. ↑,
87', 2 - 3, Giles R. (Own goal),
88', Roberts P. ↓, Poveda I. ↑,
90+5', Poveda I. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 2.

Middlesbrough is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sunderland is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Brynn S. (Injury) Conway T. (Hamstring Injury) Dijksteel A. (Muscle Injury) Howson J. (Calf Injury) Latte Lath E. (Muscle Injury) Lenihan D. (Ankle Injury) McGree R. (Muscle Injury) Smith T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Sunderland: Alese A. (Broken Leg) Browne A. (Broken Leg) Huggins N. (Knee Injury) Watson T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sunderland: Mundle R. (Hamstring Injury)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Middlesbrough won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:8 (average 1.1:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Middlesbrough won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:1 (average 0.9:0.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
25.01.25	Preston North End - Middlesbrough	2:1 ✺
21.01.25	Middlesbrough - West Bromwich Albion	2:0 ✺
18.01.25	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Middlesbrough - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
English League Championship
04.01.25	Middlesbrough - Cardiff City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLT
- Sunderland AFC
English League Championship
25.01.25	Sunderland - Plymouth Argyle	2:2 ✺
21.01.25	Derby County - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
17.01.25	Burnley - Sunderland	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Sunderland - Stoke City	1:2 ET ✺
English League Championship
05.01.25	Sunderland - Portsmouth	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
21.09.24	Sunderland - Middlesbrough	1:0
04.02.24	Middlesbrough - Sunderland	1:1
07.10.23	Sunderland - Middlesbrough	0:4
22.01.23	Sunderland - Middlesbrough	2:0
05.09.22	Middlesbrough - Sunderland	1:0
Club Friendly
27.07.18	Middlesbrough - Sunderland	0:0
English League Championship
24.02.18	Sunderland - Middlesbrough	3:3

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