Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 32

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Galgenwaard (Utrecht)

Referee: Bos A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2


	Utrecht		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	1.7	4.1	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.9	4.2
	1.7	3.95	4.7
	1.73	4.2	4.73
	1.71	4.12	4.47	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4.33
	1.72	4.08	4.69	Watch
	1.79	3.75	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.79)	3.99 ↑ (3.75)	4.49 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Utrecht
55.1%

Draw
23.8%

NAC Breda
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

25.2%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

24.9%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Utrecht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Utrecht than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	8.3%	0%

Utrecht - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: Utrecht will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Barkas V. (G) 23. Vesterlund N. 3. van der Hoorn M. (C) 44. Eerdhuijzen M. 16. El Karouani S. 27. Engwanda A. 20. de Wit D. 21. Zechiel G. 77. Alarcon A. 18. Stepanov A. 10. Cathline Y.	99. Bielica D. (G) 3. Odoi D. 15. Mahmutovic E. 8. Leemans C. 4. Kemper B. (C) 25. Valerius C. 10. Nassoh M. 16. Balard M. 14. Sowah K. 90. Holtby L. 24. Ayew A.
Substitutes
5. Adiele E. 15. Blake A. 8. Bozdogan C. 51. Eppink M. (G) 33. Gadellaa K. (G) 91. Haller S. 2. Horemans S. 11. Karlsson J. 9. Min D. 53. Viereck N. 24. Viergever N.	7. Brym C. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 22. Hillen R. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 19. Salama A. 9. Soumano M. 32. Talvitie J.
Coaches
Jans R.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Nassoh M. 🟥,
40', Balard M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Eerdhuijzen M. ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
66', Stepanov A. ↓, Haller S. ↑,
67', Alarcon A. ↓, Blake A. ↑,
75', Vesterlund N. ↓, Horemans S. ↑,
75', Ayew A. ↓, Soumano M. ↑,
75', Valerius C. ↓, Hillen R. ↑,
81', Holtby L. ↓, Candelaria J. ↑,
83', Bielica D. 🟨,
86', 1 - 0, de Wit D. ⚽, Karlsson J. (A),
89', de Wit D. ↓, Min D. ↑,
90+1', Balard M. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
90+2', Mahmutovic E. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
90+4', Cathline Y. ↓, Bozdogan C. ↑,
90+5', Sowah K. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 0, Blake A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 3.

In recent matches, Utrecht has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Breda is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Utrecht is the team to beat.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Utrecht won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:25. (average 2.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Utrecht won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 2.1:1.6).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11:24	-13	5

Last Results with these Odds

Utrecht - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 52.81%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Utrecht
Dutch Eredivisie
26.04.26	Excelsior - Utrecht	5:0 ✺
11.04.26	Utrecht - Telstar	4:1 ✺
04.04.26	PSV Eindhoven - Utrecht	4:3 ✺
22.03.26	Utrecht - Go Ahead Eagles	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Twente - Utrecht	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWLWW
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Fortuna Sittard - NAC Breda	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Zwolle - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Go Ahead Eagles - NAC Breda	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
14.12.25	NAC Breda - Utrecht	1:1
01.03.25	Utrecht - NAC Breda	1:0
24.08.24	NAC Breda - Utrecht	1:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.12.21	NAC Breda - Utrecht	3:2
Dutch Eredivisie
16.03.19	NAC Breda - Utrecht	0:4
05.10.18	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:1
23.12.17	NAC Breda - Utrecht	3:1

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