Match Info

League One - Round 37

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Swabey L. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.25	2.35	Watch
	2.92	3.05	2.48
	3.05	3.21	2.5
	2.83	3.17	2.53	Watch
	2.9	3	2.4
	2.91	3.15	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.57)	3.14 ↓ (3.32)	2.45 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
32.1%

Draw
29.8%

Burton Albion
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

27.8%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

27.2%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Burton Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Northampton Town - Burton Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Burton will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Burton (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burge L. (G) 18. Forbes M. 35. Dyche M. 24. Moore E. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 15. Evans J. 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 7. Hoskins S. (C) 8. McGeehan C. 27. Vale J.	24. Collins B. (G) 2. Godwin-Malife U. (C) 18. Moon J. 16. Hartridge A. 15. Lofthouse K. 4. Chauke K. 12. Evans G. 6. Sibbick T. 42. Cannon A. 9. Beesley J. 10. Shade T.
Substitutes
9. Eaves T. 34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 14. Fornah T. 17. Jacobs M. 3. McCarthy C. 21. Perkins J. 11. Swyer K.	29. Adom K. 27. Dudek K. (G) 41. Krubally S. 7. McKiernan J. J. 11. Tavares F. 5. Vancooten T. 19. Williams D.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Bowyer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Taylor T. 🟨,
20', McGeehan C. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Beesley J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Vale J. ↓, Eaves T. ↑,
64', Hoskins S. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,
65', Taylor T. ↓, Fornah T. ↑,
68', Cannon A. ↓, Williams D. ↑,
70', Collins B. 🟨,
83', Campbell D. ↓, Jacobs M. ↑,
83', Forbes M. ↓, Perkins J. ↑,
86', Chauke K. 🟨,
87', Chauke K. ↓, McKiernan J. J. ↑,
87', Shade T. ↓, Adom K. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Lofthouse K. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 2.

Northampton has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Burton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Shaw L. (Knee Injury) Wormleighton J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Burton: Armer J. (Inactive) Delap F. (Inactive) Gilligan C. (Inactive) Jones J. (Foot Injury) Revan S. (Injury) Webster C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Northampton: Edwards K. (Injury) Guthrie J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Burton: Williams D. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of English League One for now

Burton: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Burton	10	3	3	4	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Northampton Town - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.87%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
08.03.26	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
04.03.26	Luton Town - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
28.02.26	Northampton Town - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Northampton Town - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- Burton Albion
English League One
07.03.26	Burton Albion - Stevenage Borough	0:1 ✺
03.03.26	Exeter City - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Burton Albion	3:0 ✺
24.02.26	Burton Albion - Stockport County	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Luton Town - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.12.25	Burton Albion - Northampton Town	5:1
04.01.25	Burton Albion - Northampton Town	0:1
English EFL Trophy
12.11.24	Northampton Town - Burton Albion	2:5
English League One
31.08.24	Northampton Town - Burton Albion	0:0
24.02.24	Burton Albion - Northampton Town	0:2
11.11.23	Northampton Town - Burton Albion	2:0
13.02.21	Northampton Town - Burton Albion	0:2

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