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Current Win Probability
Nottingham Forest 58%
Draw 25%
Birmingham City 17.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
46.9%
28.4%
24.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
47.1%
28.3%
24.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nottingham Forest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nottingham Forest's performance.
Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Birmingham City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest than the current prediction. (-10.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nottingham Forest that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+7.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Birmingham City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
85.9%
5.6%
8.5%
Nottingham Forest - Birmingham City Predictions
Users Predictions:
Nottingham Forest will win
(61 of 71 users predict this - 85.92%). Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 94.01%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Preview
Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs) and 18).
Nottingham has the most likely position - 3 (34.77%), has project points - 76, has currently - 64, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of prom. playoffs (77%), has a chance of promoted (31%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Birmingham has the most likely position - 18 (31.09%), has project points - 52, has currently - 45, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.
This event has quality46, small importance16, match rating31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Nottingham won 2.
Nottingham is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Recent matches Birmingham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Birmingham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Nottingham have a series of home games.
In this match Nottingham is a favorite.
Our prediction for today's Nottingham to win the game is with odds 1.58.
Last 20 head-to-head matches Nottingham won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 25-21.
Including matches at home between the teams Nottingham won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15-10.
Watch
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