Match Info

League One - Round 35

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Swabey L. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.15
	3.05	3.35	2.22	Watch
	3.23	3.42	2.3
	3.06	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.3
	3.03	3.34	2.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.1 ↓ (3.34)	3.27 ↑ (3.17)	2.25 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
30.1%

Draw
28.5%

Luton Town
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

29.4%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

28.5%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Port Vale - Luton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Luton will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gauci J. (G) 24. Kyle John (C) 25. Humphreys C. 5. Hall C. 15. Gordon L. 14. Ojo F. 12. Walters R. 33. Hall G. 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 19. Waine B. 9. Stockley J.	24. Keeley J. (G) 25. Jones I. 17. Lonwijk N. 3. Naismith K. (C) 38. Johnson J. 23. Saville G. 8. Walsh L. 27. Richards J. 18. Clark J. 32. Lawrence E. 21. Wells N.
Substitutes
13. Amos B. (G) 45. Gray A. 3. Headley J. 35. Magloire T. 21. Sherif M. 26. Shipley J. 28. Ward G.	12. Al Hamadi A. 44. Fox H. 14. Morris S. 16. Odoffin H. 54. Palmer K. 1. Shea J. (G) 6. van den Berg D.
Coaches
Brady J.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Wells N. ⚽, Lawrence E. (A),
6', Hall G. 🟨,
22', Johnson J. 🟨,
25', Humphreys C. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Waine B. ⚽, Hall G. (A),
40', Clark J. 🟨,
43', Naismith K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Wells N. ↓, Al Hamadi A. ↑,
61', Richards J. ↓, Palmer K. ↑,
66', Stockley J. ↓, Gray A. ↑,
71', Walsh L. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
77', Walters R. ↓, Shipley J. ↑,
78', Hall G. ↓, Sherif M. ↑,
80', Jones I. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
81', Lonwijk N. ↓, Odoffin H. ↑,
87', Waine B. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Luton might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Port Vale: Byers G. (Injury) Croasdale R. (Inactive) Garrity B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Bramall C. (Inactive) Mengi T. (Injury) Odoffin H. (Inactive) Sandal S. (Inactive) Walsh L. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Port Vale won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	16:15	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Port Vale - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 27.94%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
24.02.26	Northampton Town - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Port Vale - Reading	1:1 ✺
17.02.26	Stevenage Borough - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.02.26	Port Vale - Stockport County	0:4 ✺
English League One
07.02.26	Port Vale - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLLT
- Luton Town
English EFL Trophy
24.02.26	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 ✺
English League One
21.02.26	Luton Town - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
18.02.26	Wigan Athletic - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff City - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Luton Town - Bradford City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
13.12.25	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:2
English League Two
30.12.17	Port Vale - Luton Town	4:0
12.09.17	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:0

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