Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball, TV Globo Internacional


	São Paulo		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.8	4.5	Watch
	1.98	3.5	3.8
	1.75	3.55	4.45	Watch
	1.77	3.8	5.1
	1.73	3.73	4.97	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.6
	1.78	3.75	4.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.94)	3.66 ↑ (3.32)	4.59 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
53.4%

Draw
25.9%

Botafogo RJ
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27.7%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

28.3%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in São Paulo's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with São Paulo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	18.2%	0%

São Paulo - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 29. Pablo Maia 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	22. Neto (G) 2. Vitinho 5. Ferraresi N. 34. Justino G. 21. Marcal (C) 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 75. Huguinho 23. Rodriguez S. 10. Montoro A. 19. Arthur Cabral 59. Kauan Toledo
Substitutes
31. Carlos Coronel (G) 48. Djhordney 30. Felipe Negrucci 38. Hugo Leonardo 15. Joao Moreira 33. Luan Silva 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 46. Pedro Ferreira 43. Santana G. 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G.	14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 27. Caio Roque 45. Caio Valle 30. Correa J. 88. Edenilson 42. Kadu Santos 25. Newton 9. Ramos C. 1. Raul Steffens (G) 55. Wallace Davi 3. Ythallo
Coaches
Dorival Junior	Carvalho F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Luciano ⚽,
27', Luciano 🟨,
27', Justino G. 🟨,
30', Luciano ↓, Pedro Ferreira ↑,
44', Sabino ↓, Luis Osorio ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Barria K. ↑,
61', Montoro A. 🟨,
65', Montoro A. ↓, Edenilson ↑,
65', Kauan Toledo ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
75', Ferreira ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
75', Pedro Ferreira ↓, Djhordney ↑,
76', Huguinho ↓, Correa J. ↑,
80', Wendell 🟨,
84', Correa J. 🟨,
85', Rafael 🟨,
87', Justino G. ↓, Ramos C. ↑,
89', Tapia G. 🟨,
90', 1 - 1, Barrera J. ⚽,
90+2', Ramos C. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1.

São Paulo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Botafogo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, São Paulo has had a series of away games.

In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva (Yellow Cards) Bobadilla D. (Yellow Cards) Diaz E. (Yellow Cards) Maik (Inactive) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Broken nose) Robert Arboleda (Inactive) Toloi R. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Alex Telles (Yellow Cards) Allan (Muscle Injury) Kaio Pantaleao (Knee Injury) Medina C. (Yellow Cards) Nathan Fernandes (Knee Injury) Ponte M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Sao Paulo: 0.24% Botafogo RJ: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
13	Botafogo RJ	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 3.68 are the expected chance of winning is 24.96%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
19.05.26	São Paulo - Millonarios	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Juventude - São Paulo	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.26	OHiggins - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLT
- Botafogo RJ
Copa Sudamericana
20.05.26	Independiente Petroleros - Botafogo RJ	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Chapecoense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Atlético Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Botafogo RJ - Racing	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
14.09.25	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:0
16.04.25	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:2
08.12.24	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:1
Copa Libertadores
25.09.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	1:2 penalties
18.09.24	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
24.07.24	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	2:2
19.08.23	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	0:0

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