Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	U-NEXT
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Sweden	Viaplay
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Burnley		Millwall

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.7	4.33
	1.62	3.7	5
	1.82	3.7	4.45
	1.75	3.73	4.67	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4
	1.86	3.85	4.29	Watch
	1.77	3.66	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.65)	3.68 ↓ (3.73)	4.44 ↓ (5.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Burnley
53.4%

Draw
25.5%

Millwall
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.8%

25.2%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

24.3%

17.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Millwall has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burnley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millwall than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	15.8%	31.6%

Burnley - Millwall Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Millwall will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Millwall (8.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Millwall will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 20%). Millwall (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Weiss M. (G) 22. Sonne O. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. (C) 3. Hartman Q. 29. Laurent J. 8. Ugochukwu L. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 17. Tchaouna L. 11. Anthony J. 35. Barnes A.	13. Benda S. (G) 18. Leonard R. 5. Cooper J. (C) 27. Grant K. 23. Bryan J. 14. Doughty A. 8. Mitchell B. 7. Ballo T. 31. Bangura-Williams R. 22. Emakhu A. 17. Langstaff M.
Substitutes
34. Banel J. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 16. Florentino 32. Hladky V. (G) 12. Humphreys B. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 6. Tuanzebe A.	19. Coburn J. 43. Coleman J. (G) 45. Harding W. 47. Howland J. 32. Kendall S. 30. Lamptey R. 28. Matthews A. 2. McNamara D. 3. Sturge Z.
Coaches
Parker S.	Neil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Barnes A. ⚽, Bruun Larsen J. (A),
34', Leonard R. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Tchaouna L. ⚽, Ekdal H. (A),
42', Sonne O. 🟨,
44', 3 - 0, Anthony J. ⚽, Bruun Larsen J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', Langstaff M. ↓, Coburn J. ↑,
61', Mitchell B. ↓, Howland J. ↑,
65', 4 - 0, Barnes A. ⚽,
66', Laurent J. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
66', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Florentino ↑,
66', Ballo T. ↓, Lamptey R. ↑,
66', Leonard R. ↓, McNamara D. ↑,
78', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
80', Tchaouna L. 🟨,
83', Doughty A. ↓, Matthews A. ↑,
85', Mejbri H. 🟨,
89', 5 - 0, Banel J. ⚽,
90+4', 5 - 1, Coburn J. ⚽, Lamptey R. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 3.

Burnley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Millwall has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Burnley is seen as the favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Burnley: 0.71% Millwall: 0.37%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
07.01.26	Burnley - Manchester United	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Burnley	2:0 ✺
30.12.25	Burnley - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	Burnley - Everton	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Bournemouth - Burnley	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLLTT
- Millwall
English League Championship
04.01.26	Millwall - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
01.01.26	Southampton - Millwall	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Millwall - Bristol City	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Millwall - Ipswich Town	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Blackburn Rovers - Millwall	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
03.05.25	Burnley - Millwall	3:1
03.11.24	Millwall - Burnley	1:0
21.02.23	Millwall - Burnley	1:1
30.08.22	Burnley - Millwall	2:0
English League Cup
23.09.20	Millwall - Burnley	0:2
English League Championship
08.02.14	Burnley - Millwall	3:1
02.11.13	Millwall - Burnley	2:2

Upcoming Matches