Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday


	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina		Alex De Minaur

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.6	Watch
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.42	1.66
	2.35	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.32	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.4)	1.62 ↑ (1.53)

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
41.2%

Alex De Minaur
58.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

61.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Alex De Minaur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex De Minaur than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex De Minaur could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
39.1%	0%	60.9%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Davidovich Fokina will win (votes: 9 - 39.1%). De Minaur will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Minaur: 41% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alex De Minaur will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 23. De Minaur is ranked ATP: 9.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 2.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Davidovich Fokina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

De Minaur is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Davidovich Fokina won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Hamburg
18.05.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Corentin Moutet	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
11.05.26	Andrey Rublev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Christian Garin - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
27.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLW
- Alex De Minaur
ATP Hamburg
18.05.26	Francisco Cerundolo - Alex De Minaur	1:2 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Alex De Minaur - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Rafael Jodar - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Hamad Medjedovic	0:2 ✺
14.04.26	Alex De Minaur - Sebastian Ofner	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Washington
27.07.25	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	1:2
ATP Toronto
12.08.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	0:2
ATP London
15.06.22	Alex De Minaur - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	2:0
ATP Next Gen Finals
05.11.19	Alex De Minaur - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3:1
ATP Challenger
15.05.18	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Alex De Minaur	2:0

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