Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)


	Alianza Lima		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25
	3.3	3.25	2.28
	3.46	3.21	2.31
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.3	3.25	2.24	Watch
	3.15	3.1	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↓ (3.85)	3.16 ↓ (3.33)	2.28 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
28.9%

Draw
29.8%

Athletico Paranaense
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

27.6%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2%

26.8%

49.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletico Paranaense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Lima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletico Paranaense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	50%	33.3%

Alianza Lima - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Alianza Lima is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athletico PR is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Athletico PR will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
01.04.23	Alianza Lima - Cienciano	2:0 ✺
26.03.23	Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
19.03.23	Sport Huancayo - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
11.03.23	Alianza Lima - Cusco	2:0 ✺
05.03.23	Cajamarca - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWW
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
01.04.23	FC Cascavel - Athletico Paranaense	1:2 ✺
26.03.23	Athletico Paranaense - Maringá	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Maringá - Athletico Paranaense	0:2 ✺
12.03.23	Athletico Paranaense - São-Joseense	4:0 ✺
04.03.23	São-Joseense - Athletico Paranaense	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWWW

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