Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 28 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Diego Armando Maradona (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)


	Argentinos Juniors		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	6	Watch
	1.52	4.1	5.75
	1.5	4.2	6	Watch
	1.53	4.09	6.2
	1.49	4.08	6.07
	1.44	4	6	Watch
	1.53	4.15	5.85	Watch
	1.49	4.1	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.34)	4.15 ↓ (4.64)	5.98 ↓ (8.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Argentinos Juniors
62%

Draw
22.4%

Nacional Asuncion
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.5%

20.1%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

19.4%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Argentinos Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Argentinos Juniors's form might have worsened.

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Argentinos Juniors than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Argentinos Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

Argentinos Juniors - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Argentinos Juniors will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Argentinos Juniors: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Siri Payer G. (G) 16. Alvarez F. 13. Palacio T. 18. Meza F. 14. Coronel K. 5. Cardozo J. 25. Gomez L. 7. Montiel S. 15. Heredia L. 28. Perello M. 11. Batallini D.	1. Silva A. (C) 25. Rivas L. 36. Benegas I. 17. Blasi B. 4. Alfaro J. L. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 29. Vargas S. 24. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 7. Orzusa E. 38. Arevalo R. 11. Caballero G.
Substitutes
1. Acosta M. (G) 41. Baez F. 19. Galvan J. 17. Moyano F. 31. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 21. Oroz N. 47. Porcel D. 20. Prieto S. 39. Rocha G. 42. Sosa M. 38. Vazquez F. 34. Villalba B.	6. Alfaro J. 15. Avalos Gimenez F. A. 9. Bailone I. 21. Blas Caceres 37. Campss J. 23. Duarte D. 30. Galarza L. (G) 20. Gomez A. 28. Gonzalez A. 13. Meza L. 14. Nunez C. 5. Ojeda S.
Coaches
Guede P.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Heredia L. ⚽, Batallini D. (A),
14', Orzusa E. 🟨,
16', Silva A. 🟨,
18', 2 - 0, Batallini D. (Pen),
39', 2 - 1, Arevalo R. ⚽, Rivas L. (A),
45+2', Blasi B. 🟨,
45+3', Cardozo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vargas S. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
46', Montiel S. ↓, Prieto S. ↑,
48', Coronel K. 🟨,
64', Caballero G. ↓, Duarte D. ↑,
65', Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↓, Meza L. ↑,
74', Perello M. ↓, Rocha G. ↑,
74', Meza F. ↓, Vazquez F. ↑,
74', Heredia L. ↓, Baez F. ↑,
75', Gomez L. 🟨,
76', Gomez A. 🟨,
78', Batallini D. ↓, Villalba B. ↑,
79', Orzusa E. ↓, Alfaro J. ↑,
79', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Argentinos Juniors could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Argentinos Juniors is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Argentinos Juniors won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Argentinos Juniors
Argentinian Liga Profesional
25.05.24	Argentinos Juniors - River Plate	1:0 ✺
20.05.24	Racing - Argentinos Juniors	3:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.24	Corinthians - Argentinos Juniors	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.24	Argentinos Juniors - Rosario Central	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.24	Racing Montevideo - Argentinos Juniors	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWL
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - Sol de América	3:0 ✺
21.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	5:0 ✺
17.05.24	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.05.24	Racing Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.05.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
02.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Argentinos Juniors	2:3

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