Match Info

ENGLAND: FA Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Birmingham City		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.1	1.75
	4.6	4	1.68
	4.75	4.33	1.66
	4.8	4.25	1.68
	4.89	4.13	1.7	Watch
	4.6	3.9	1.67
	4.99	4.17	1.71	Watch
	4.75	4.33	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.71 ↓ (6.1)	4.15 ↓ (4.89)	1.69 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birmingham City
20.3%

Draw
23%

Newcastle United
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

19.4%

65.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.1%

17.7%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Birmingham City - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Birmingham will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newcastle will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 2. Laird E. 4. Klarer C. (C) 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 12. Leonard M. 11. Wright S. 30. Dowell K. 14. Anderson K. 28. Stansfield J.	22. Pope N. (G) 21. Livramento V. 17. Krafth E. 33. Burn D. 13. Targett M. 67. Miley L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 36. Longstaff S. 18. Osula W. 9. Wilson C. 28. Willock J.
Substitutes
21. Allsop R. (G) 6. Bielik K. 17. Dykes L. 31. Hanley G. 26. Harris L. 10. Jutkiewicz L. 9. May A. 23. Sampsted A. 18. Willumsson W. T.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 20. Hall L. 14. Isak A. 23. Murphy J. 78. Neave S. 26. Ruddy J. (G) 5. Schar F. 8. Tonali S. 2. Trippier K.
Coaches
Davies C.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', 1 - 0, Laird E. ⚽, Anderson K. (A),
14', Burn D. 🟨,
21', 1 - 1, Willock J. ⚽, Osula W. (A),
26', 1 - 2, Wilson C. ⚽, Osula W. (A),
40', 2 - 2, Iwata T. ⚽,
45+3', Osula W. 🟨,
45+3', Anderson K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Tonali S. ↑,
55', Wilson C. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
55', Burn D. ↓, Schar F. ↑,
62', Leonard M. ↓, Willumsson W. T. ↑,
66', Stansfield J. 🟨,
68', Willock J. 🟨,
71', Klarer C. 🟨,
75', Willumsson W. T. 🟨,
76', Stansfield J. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
76', Anderson K. ↓, May A. ↑,
77', Wright S. ↓, Bielik K. ↑,
82', 2 - 3, Willock J. ⚽, Longstaff S. (A),
84', Iwata T. ↓, Hanley G. ↑,
90+14', Osula W. ↓, Isak A. ↑,

Preview

Birmingham in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Newcastle is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Birmingham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Newcastle have a series of home games.

In this match Newcastle is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Birmingham won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:8 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Birmingham won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City
English EFL Trophy
04.02.25	Stevenage Borough - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
English League One
01.02.25	Birmingham City - Rotherham United	2:1 ✺
28.01.25	Huddersfield Town - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
23.01.25	Wrexham - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Birmingham City - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWTW
- Newcastle United
English League Cup
05.02.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4 ✺
15.01.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
18.03.17	Birmingham City - Newcastle United	0:0
English FA Cup
18.01.17	Newcastle United - Birmingham City	3:1
07.01.17	Birmingham City - Newcastle United	1:1
English League Championship
10.12.16	Newcastle United - Birmingham City	4:0

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