Match Info

Serie B - Round 38

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadio Benito Stirpe (Frosinone)

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 6, Blue Sport 6
World	Onefootball


	Frosinone		Mantova

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.55	4.4	5
	1.58	4.25	4.75	Watch
	1.64	4.21	5.12
	1.64	3.89	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4	4.8
	1.59	4.3	4.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.55)	4.18 ↓ (4.33)	4.89 ↓ (5.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frosinone
58.6%

Draw
22.3%

Mantova
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.3%

21.6%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

20.6%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frosinone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Frosinone - Mantova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mantova (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Frosinone will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Frosinone (votes: 1 - 50%). Mantova (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Palmisani L. (G) 20. Oyono A. 2. Cittadini G. 30. Monterisi I. (C) 79. Bracaglia G. 14. Calo G. 16. Cichella M. 10. Gelli F. 7. Ghedjemis F. 9. Raimondo A. 17. Kvernadze G.	24. Bardi F. (G) 3. Dembele A. 29. Cella S. 27. Castellini A. 96. Maggioni T. 21. Trimboli S. 80. Kouda R. 50. Benaissa-Yahia F. 19. Ruocco F. 23. Marras T. 9. Mancuso L. (C)
Substitutes
3. Calvani G. 19. Corrado N. 40. Fini S. 80. Fiori A. 6. Gelli J. 92. Kone B. L. 8. Koutsoupias I. 12. Lolic E. (G) 21. Oyono J. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 90. Vergani E. 28. Zilli M.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 77. Buso N. 28. Caprini M. 18. Falletti C. 33. Marai C. 36. Paoletti F. 34. Vukovic A. (G) 10. Wieser D. 98. Zuccon F.
Coaches
Alvini M.	Modesto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', Castellini A. 🟨,
5', 1 - 0, Calo G. (Penalty Awarded),
12', 2 - 0, Castellini A. (Own goal),
23', Ghedjemis F. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Maggioni T. ↓, Paoletti F. ↑,
57', 3 - 0, Ghedjemis F. ⚽,
63', Ruocco F. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
63', Kouda R. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
64', Trimboli S. 🟨,
67', Gelli F. ↓, Koutsoupias I. ↑,
67', Ghedjemis F. ↓, Fini S. ↑,
71', 4 - 0, Raimondo A. ⚽, Koutsoupias I. (A),
72', Raimondo A. 🟨,
75', Cittadini G. ↓, Calvani G. ↑,
76', 5 - 0, Koutsoupias I. ⚽, Calo G. (A),
77', Koutsoupias I. 🟨,
81', Monterisi I. ↓, Corrado N. ↑,
81', Palmisani L. ↓, Pisseri M. ↑,
82', Marras T. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
90', Castellini A. ↓, Marai C. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 10).

Frosinone has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mantova is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Frosinone is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Frosinone: Marchizza R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mantova: Bianay Balcot C. (Muscle Injury) Bonfanti N. (Ankle Injury) Bragantini D. (Inactive) Chrysopoulos K. (Inactive) Ligue J. (Inactive) Mensah D. (Injury) Meroni A. (Inactive) Muci N. (Inactive) Radaelli N. (Inactive)

We predict that Frosinone will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Frosinone won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Frosinone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Mantova: 2.45%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	10:5	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Juve Stabia - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Frosinone - Carrarese	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Modena - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
10.04.26	Frosinone - Palermo	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Frosinone - Padova	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWTW
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
01.05.26	Mantova - Monza	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Mantova	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Mantova - Avellino	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Spezia - Mantova	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Mantova - Virtus Entella	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Mantova - Frosinone	1:5
01.03.25	Frosinone - Mantova	2:1
21.12.24	Mantova - Frosinone	3:1

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