Match Info

K League 1 - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Gimcheon Stadium (Gimcheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, IB Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Gimcheon Sangmu		Jeju

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.10	2.88	Watch
	2.37	3.25	2.87
	2.33	3.05	2.80
	2.47	3.44	3.12
	2.46	3.35	2.79	Watch
	2.40	3.40	3.00
	2.35	3.26	2.98	Watch
	2.35	3.20	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.38)	3.26 ↑ (3.25)	2.92 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimcheon Sangmu
39.2%

Draw
28.7%

Jeju
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

28.6%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Gimcheon Sangmu have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Jeju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	21.4%	42.9%

Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeju Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Jeju will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jeju: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Jeju (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jeju (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baek Jong-beom (G) 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 45. Byeon Jun-Soo 26. Lee Jung-Taek (C) 3. Park Cheol-Woo 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 56. Lee K. 55. Park T. 17. Kim Joo-Chan 14. Park Se-Jin 9. Lee G.	1. Kim Dong-Jun (G) 6. Kwon Gi-min 2. Figueiredo T. 3. Seungro L. 40. Kim Ryun-sung 27. Kim Jun-ha 14. Oh Jae-Hyeok 23. Rim Chang-Woo 11. Shin Sang-Eun 94. Emerson Negueba 10. Nam Tae-Hee (C)
Substitutes
42. Hong Si-Hoo 10. Jeon Byung-Kwan 57. Jung Jae-Min 21. Kim In-Gyun 20. Lee Chan-Wook 6. Lee Soo-Bin 15. Lim Dug-Keun 37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) 53. Roh Kyung-Ho	21. An Chan-Gi (G) 24. Choi Byung-wook 5. Italo 20. Jang M. 88. Jo In-jung 41. Kim Jae-Woo 18. Kim Shin-Jin 7. Park Chang-Jun 17. Yu In-Soo
Coaches
Joo S.	Costa S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Go Jae-Hyeon 🟨,
12', Byeon Jun-Soo 🟨,
32', Byeon Jun-Soo 🟨,
33', Emerson Negueba 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Go Jae-Hyeon ↓, Jeon Byung-Kwan ↑,
46', Lee K. ↓, Lee Chan-Wook ↑,
55', Shin Sang-Eun ↓, Kim Shin-Jin ↑,
55', Nam Tae-Hee ↓, Park Chang-Jun ↑,
64', Lee Chan-Wook ↓, Lim Dug-Keun ↑,
65', Rim Chang-Woo ↓, Italo ↑,
65', Kim Jun-ha ↓, Choi Byung-wook ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Park Cheol-Woo ⚽,
73', 1 - 1, Figueiredo T. ⚽, Oh Jae-Hyeok (A),
76', Kwon Gi-min ↓, Yu In-Soo ↑,
85', Kim Tae-Hwan ↓, Hong Si-Hoo ↑,
85', Kim Joo-Chan ↓, Kim In-Gyun ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 2.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 36:21. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimcheon Sangmu won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:11. (average 1.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Jeju SK	31	12	10	9	36:31	5	46
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33

Last Results with these Odds

Gimcheon Sangmu - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.19%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Jeju - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.2%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
17.05.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:0 ✺
13.05.26	Anyang - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:2 ✺
09.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Incheon United	0:3 ✺
05.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	FC Seoul - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTLLW
- Jeju SK
South Korean K-League 1
17.05.26	Jeju - Anyang	1:2 ✺
13.05.26	Ulsan HD - Jeju	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Jeju - FC Seoul	2:1 ✺
05.05.26	Bucheon - Jeju	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Jeju - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
18.04.26	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1
26.07.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeju	3:1
17.05.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeju	1:1
22.02.25	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:3
01.09.24	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:0
18.05.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeju	1:0
13.04.24	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:2

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