Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.75	1.95	Watch
	3.1	3.75	2.1
	3.6	3.75	2	Watch
	3.68	3.89	2.02
	3.62	3.91	1.99	Watch
	3.1	3.7	2.1	Watch
	3.65	3.95	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.26)	3.81 ↑ (3.79)	2.03 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
27.5%

Draw
25.2%

Freiburg
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

25.4%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

25.6%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.1%	3%	90.9%

Holstein Kiel - Freiburg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Holstein Kiel (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Freiburg (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Freiburg (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (29 of 32 users predict this - 90.63%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.53% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Freiburg (votes: 14 - 93.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Dahne T. (G) 17. Becker T. (C) 5. Johansson C. 26. Zec D. 23. Rosenboom L. 24. Knudsen M. 37. Gigovic A. 47. Tolkin J. 7. Skrzybski S. 11. Bernhardsson A. 18. Machino S.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 37. Rosenfelder M. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 42. Doan R. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 32. Grifo V. (C) 44. Manzambi J. 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
20. Arp J.-F. 14. Geschwill M. 19. Harres P. 10. Holtby L. 6. Ivezic M. 9. Pichler B. 8. Porath F. 15. Schulz M. 1. Weiner T. (G)	38. Gregoritsch M. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 17. Kubler L. 23. Muslija F. 34. Rohl M. 25. Sildillia K.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Rosenboom L. ⚽, Machino S. (A),
45+2', 1 - 1, Manzambi J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Holer L. ⚽, Grifo V. (A),
61', Rosenboom L. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
67', Gigovic A. 🟨,
71', Tolkin J. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
76', Grifo V. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
76', Rosenfelder M. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
78', Gigovic A. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
79', Johansson C. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
90+6', Doan R. ↓, Hofler N. ↑,
90+6', Adamu J. ↓, Sildillia K. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Holstein Kiel has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Freiburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Thigh Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Knee Injury) Komenda M. (Thigh Injury) Nekic I. (Knee Injury) Remberg N. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Ogbus B. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Machino S. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
04.05.25	Augsburg - Holstein Kiel	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Holstein Kiel - Borussia Mönchengladbach	4:3 ✺
19.04.25	RB Leipzig - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 WWTLT
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
04.05.25	Freiburg - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
26.04.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.01.25	Freiburg - Holstein Kiel	3:2
German DFB Pokal
31.10.18	Holstein Kiel - Freiburg	2:1

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