Match Info

Date: 16 September 2021, Thursday


	Lokomotiv Moscow		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.5	2
	3.8	3.5	2
	3.3	3.45	2.25
	3.65	3.45	1.98
	3.76	3.58	2.07
	3.5	3.6	2
	3.8	3.8	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.25)	3.55 ↓ (3.58)	2.06 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiv Moscow
26.3%

Draw
27%

Olympique Marseille
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

26.5%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

20.3%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olympique Marseille could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.4%	12%	73.6%

Lokomotiv Moscow - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 125 users predict this event. Lokomotiv will win (votes: 18 - 14.4%). Marseille will win (votes: 92 - 73.6%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 65.9% – 81.3%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Lokomotiv has currently - 0, has a small chance of 1st (11%), has a chance of 2nd (19%), has a chance of 3rd (28%), has a chance of round of 16 (16%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Marseille has currently - 0, has a chance of 1st (30%), has a chance of 2nd (29%), has a chance of 3rd (24%), has a chance of round of 16 (41%), has a chance of qtrs (17%), has a small chance of semis (7%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Lokomotiv is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Marseille is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Lokomotiv could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Marseille will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
11.09.21	Lokomotiv Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.21	CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
27.08.21	Dynamo Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	1:1 ✺
22.08.21	Lokomotiv Moscow - Krasnodar	2:1 ✺
15.08.21	Lokomotiv Moscow - Zenit	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWTWT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
11.09.21	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	0:2 ✺
28.08.21	Olympique Marseille - Saint-Étienne	3:1 ✺
15.08.21	Olympique Marseille - Bordeaux	2:2 ✺
08.08.21	Montpellier - Olympique Marseille	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.21	Olympique Marseille - Villarreal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWTWW

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