The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Olympique Marseille 39.9%
Draw 26.8%
Benfica 33.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
40.7%
26%
33.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.5%
27.1%
31.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
The chances for Benfica have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
72.4%
10.5%
17.1%
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Predictions
Users Predictions:
76 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 55 - 72.4%). Benfica will win (votes: 13 - 17.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 10.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Marseille: 62.3% – 82.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
16. Lopez P. (G) 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 4. Gigot S. (C) 37. Soglo E. 29. Ndiaye I. 19. Kondogbia G. 11. Harit A. 8. Ounahi A. 27. Veretout J. 10. Aubameyang P.
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 4. Antonio Silva 30. Otamendi N. (C) 8. Aursnes F. 61. Florentino 87. Neves J. 27. Rafa Silva 11. Di Maria A. 19. Tengstedt C. 7. David Neres
Substitutes
41. Abdallah K. 36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 49. Daou R. 46. Lafont G. 44. Luis Henrique 14. Moumbagna F. 62. Murillo M. 48. Said M'Madi Y.
81. Bajrami A. 9. Cabral A. 3. Carreras A. 75. Gomes A. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 20. Joao Mario 10. Kokcu O. 36. Marcos Leonardo 5. Morato 32. Rollheiser B. 24. Soares S. (G) 82. Spencer D.
Coaches
Gasset J.
Schmidt R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Antonio Silva 🟨,
45+2', Mbemba Ch. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mbemba Ch. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
59', Soglo E. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
59', Ounahi A. ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
60', Di Maria A. 🟨,
61', David Neres ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
61', Tengstedt C. ↓, Kokcu O. ↑,
75', Ndiaye I. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Moumbagna F. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
89', Harit A. 🟨,
89', Gigot S. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
100', Gigot S. ↓, Daou R. ↑,
102', Rafa Silva ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
110', Kokcu O. 🟨,
110', Harit A. ↓, Lafont G. ↑,
114', Florentino 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Di Maria A. (Pen),
1, Correa J. (Pen),
2, Kokcu O. (Pen),
2, Kondogbia G. (Pen),
3, Otamendi N. (Pen),
3, Balerdi L. (Pen),
4, Antonio Silva (Pen),
Preview
2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.
Marseille has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Benfica is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Marseille have a series of guest games.
Recently Benfica have a series of home games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
There will not play in Marseille: Clauss J.
(Muscle Injury)
Merlin Q.
(Ankle Injury)
Nadir B.
(Knee Injury)
Ngapandouetnbu S.
(Injury)
Onana J.
(Muscle Injury)
Rongier V.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz P.
(Injury)
There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T.
(Ankle Injury)
Our prediction for today's Benfica to win the game is with odds 2.94.
Last 3 head-to-head matches Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.
Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.
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Lopez P. (G) 
Mbemba Ch. 
Balerdi L. 
Gigot S. (C) 
Soglo E. 
Ndiaye I. 
Kondogbia G. 
Harit A. 
Aubameyang P. 
Trubin A. (G) 
Bah A. 
Antonio Silva 
Aursnes F. 
David Neres 
Daou R. 
Moumbagna F. 
Murillo M. 
Bajrami A. 
Kokcu O. 
Schmidt R. 
