Match Info

ITALY: SERIE A - ROUND 38

Date: 4 June 2023, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Finland	CMore, CMore MAX
Hungary	Sport 2
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	BT Sport
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Roma		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.75	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.8	3.65	4.5
	1.82	3.6	4.33
	1.83	3.72	4.62
	1.75	3.3	4
	1.83	3.68	4.3	Watch
	1.84	3.7	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.85)	3.63 ↓ (3.84)	4.41 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
52.4%

Draw
26.1%

Spezia
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

25.1%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

24.5%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.5%	3.8%	7.7%

Roma - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: Roma will win (92 of 104 users predict this - 88.46%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.32% – 94.6%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 6. Smalling C. 23. Mancini G. 59. Zalewski N. 52. Bove E. 4. Cristante B. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 92. El Shaarawy S. 21. Dybala P. 11. Belotti A.	1. Zoet J. (G) 55. Wisniewski P. 4. Ampadu E. 43. Nikolaou D. 27. Amian K. 77. Zurkowski S. 25. Esposito Sa. 6. Bourabia M. 13. Reca A. 11. Gyasi E. (C) 18. Nzola M.
Substitutes
9. Abraham T. 63. Boer P. (G) 20. Camara M. 55. Darboe E. 2. Karsdorp R. 14. Llorente D. 8. Matic N. 1. Patricio R. (G) 3. Roger Ibanez 18. Solbakken O. 37. Spinazzola L. 68. Tahirovic B. 62. Volpato C. 25. Wijnaldum G.	33. Agudelo K. 20. Bastoni S. 29. Caldara M. 72. Cipot T. 69. Dragowski B. (G) 8. Ekdal A. 21. Ferrer S. 24. Kovalenko V. 19. Krollis R. 30. Maldini D. 22. Marchetti F. (G) 7. Sala J. 14. Shomurodov E. 10. Verde D. 40. Zovko P. (G)
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Semplici L.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage: ) and 17).

Roma has the most likely position - 7 (67.88%), project points - 62, currently - 60, not chance of relegated, not chance of qualify for ucl.

Spezia has the most likely position - 17 (77.18%), project points - 32, currently - 31, a chance of relegated (23%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 59, importance 34, match rating 46. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Roma won 4.

The competitors look crappy now.

Spezia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Roma have a series of guest games.

In this match Roma is a favorite.

There will not play in Roma: Karsdorp R. (Knee Injury) Kumbulla M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Spezia: Beck J. (Foot Injury) Holm E. (Groin Injury) Moutinho J. (Foot Injury) Sala J. (Injury) Zovko P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Caldara M. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Roma won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Roma won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
31.05.23	Sevilla - Roma	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
27.05.23	Fiorentina - Roma	2:1 ✺
22.05.23	Roma - Salernitana	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.05.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Roma	0:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.05.23	Bologna - Roma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTTT
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie A
27.05.23	Spezia - Torino	0:4 ✺
21.05.23	Lecce - Spezia	0:0 ✺
13.05.23	Spezia - Milan	2:0 ✺
06.05.23	Cremonese - Spezia	2:0 ✺
03.05.23	Atalanta - Spezia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
22.01.23	Spezia - Roma	0:2
27.02.22	Spezia - Roma	0:1
13.12.21	Roma - Spezia	2:0
23.05.21	Spezia - Roma	2:2
23.01.21	Roma - Spezia	4:3
Coppa Italia
19.01.21	Roma - Spezia	2:4 ET
16.12.15	Roma - Spezia	0:1 penalties

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