Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 10 August 2023, Thursday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Altmann W. (Aut)


	Tobol Kostanay		Derry City

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4
	1.87	3.1	4.1
	1.94	3.5	4
	1.94	3.41	4.21
	1.81	3.54	4.45
	1.9	3.45	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.75)	3.41 ↓ (3.75)	4.15 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
50.2%

Draw
27.3%

Derry City
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.3%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59%

27.6%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Derry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.6%	6.2%	4.2%

Tobol Kostanay - Derry City Predictions

Users Predictions: Tobol Kostanay will win (43 of 48 users predict this - 89.58%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.94% – 98.22%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Konovalov I. (G) 24. Kairov B. 4. Rogac I. 30. Mladjovic B. 3. Asrankulov R. 14. Zharynbetov S. 10. Muzhikov S. (C) 20. Orazov R. 11. Chesnokov I. 8. Deble S. 21. Vukadinovic M.	1. Maher B. (G) 2. Boyce R. 6. Connolly M. 17. McJannett C. (C) 14. Doherty B. 28. O'Reilly A. 15. Diallo S. 8. Patching W. 12. McMullan P. 29. Kavanagh C. 7. Duffy M.
Substitutes
12. Busurmanov S. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 51. Galym B. 6. Ilic J. 70. Ivanovic I. 18. Kireenko P. 19. Mrkaic M. 5. Semchenkov D. 90. Skakhov Y. 13. Zabelin P. 17. Zhakupov T.	3. Coll C. 23. Dummigan C. 20. Kavanagh B. 45. Lemoignan J. (G) 10. McEleney P. 16. McEleney S. 22. McEneff J. 9. McGonigle J. 21. Mullen D. 26. Ryan T. (G)
Coaches
Curcic M.	Higgins R.

Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Tobol is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Derry is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Tobol is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
06.08.23	Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	Tobol Kostanay - Basel	1:2 ✺
27.07.23	Basel - Tobol Kostanay	1:3 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
23.07.23	Tobol Kostanay - Okzhetpes	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.07.23	Honka - Tobol Kostanay	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 LLWWT
- Derry City
UEFA Europa Conference League
03.08.23	KuPS Kuopio - Derry City	3:3 ✺
27.07.23	Derry City - KuPS Kuopio	2:1 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
23.07.23	Derry City - Athlone Town	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.07.23	Derry City - HB Tórshavn	1:0 ✺
13.07.23	HB Tórshavn - Derry City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWWWT

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