Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Bucharest, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 31 March 2026, Tuesday


	Sebastian Baez		Vilius Gaubas

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
	1.18	4.25	Watch
	1.24	4.46
	1.21	4.19	Watch
	1.22	4.2	Watch
	1.24	4.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)	4.26 ↑ (3.27)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
77.8%

Vilius Gaubas
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Baez's performance.

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vilius Gaubas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vilius Gaubas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	0%	22.2%

Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Gaubas will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baez: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Baez (1.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 52. Gaubas is ranked ATP: 105.

Baez has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gaubas's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Baez is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Baez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Miami
20.03.26	Adam Walton - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
09.03.26	Daniil Medvedev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Sebastian Baez - Jiri Lehecka	2:0 ✺
05.03.26	Chun Hsin Tseng - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
28.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWL
- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Challenger
26.03.26	Max Houkes - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Abedallah Shelbayh - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
24.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
17.03.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Santiago
27.02.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Vilius Gaubas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LW?LL

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group I
17.09.23	Sebastian Baez - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled

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