Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.9	Watch
	2.38	3.45	2.98	Watch
	2.44	3.48	3.05
	2.39	3.48	2.93	Watch
	2.4	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.41	3.58	2.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.24)	3.45 ↓ (3.47)	2.94 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
39.8%

Draw
27.7%

Augsburg
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27.4%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

27.3%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Augsburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32%	48%	20%

Hamburger SV - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Augsburg will win (votes: 5 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 48%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.4% – 67.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Hamburg (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Hamburg (3.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Augsburg (3.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Augsburg (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Lokonga A. S. 20. Vieira F. 28. Muheim M. (C) 11. Konigsdorffer R. 27. Otele P. 9. Glatzel R.	1. Dahmen F. (G) 34. Arthur Chaves 31. Schlotterbeck K. (C) 16. Zesiger C. 27. Wolf M. 19. Fellhauer R. 32. Rieder F. 13. Giannoulis D. 30. Kade A. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 38. Gregoritsch M.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 19. Downs D. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 23. Gronbaek A. 43. Nandja S. 14. Philippe R. 49. Stange O. 12. Tangvik S. (G)	40. Banks N. 11. Gharbi I. 6. Gouweleeuw J. 36. Komur M. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 4. Massengo H. 39. Ogundu U. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 21. Ribeiro R.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Baum M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Arthur Chaves ⚽,
41', Otele P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Otele P. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
55', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
59', Rieder F. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Konigsdorffer R. ⚽, Glatzel R. (A),
64', Muheim M. 🟥,
67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
67', Glatzel R. ↓, Gronbaek A. ↑,
80', Kade A. ↓, Ribeiro R. ↑,
80', Fellhauer R. ↓, Massengo H. ↑,
81', Zesiger C. 🟨,
86', Schlotterbeck K. 🟨,
90', Claude-Maurice A. ↓, Ogundu U. ↑,
90+4', Philippe R. ↓, Stange O. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 1.

Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Augsburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hamburg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Hamburg: Capaldo N. (Abdominal strain) Dompe J. (Foot Injury) Jatta B. (Hamstring Injury) Poulsen Y. (Thigh Injury) Remberg N. (Yellow Cards) Rossing-Lelesiit A. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Augsburg: Keitel Y. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Augsburg: Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	13:8	5	8
11	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	5:15	-10	6

Last Results with these Odds

Hamburger SV - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.43%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
21.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Hamburger SV	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
04.03.26	Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLL
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
22.03.26	Augsburg - Stuttgart	2:5 ✺
14.03.26	Borussia Dortmund - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	RB Leipzig - Augsburg	2:1 ✺
27.02.26	Augsburg - Köln	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Wolfsburg - Augsburg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0
Club Friendly
07.07.21	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	2:2
German Bundesliga
13.01.18	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:0
19.08.17	Hamburger SV - Augsburg	1:0
30.04.17	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	4:0
10.12.16	Hamburger SV - Augsburg	1:0
14.05.16	Augsburg - Hamburger SV	1:3

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